Why does extreme rainfall occur? What processes trigger it and which weather patterns make it more or less likely? How will extreme rainfall change in a warmer, wetter world? Can we do a better job of predicting extreme rainfall today?

These questions are all interrelated, and in my research I find ways to leverage physical understanding in order to better understand what our weather forecasts and climate simulations are telling us.

As part of the CordexBench initiative I am also investigating how well we can emulate the relationship between large-scale weather and rainfall using machine learning approaches. 

My other research interests include the variability of the atmosphere across decades and centuries, and the use of mathematical perspectives to tackle problems in atmospheric dynamics from new angles: e.g. probability theory, dynamical systems theory and topological data science.

I am open to supervising/co-supervising Masters' projects and summer internships on topics related to atmospheric dynamics and the dynamics of extremes, using physical diagnostics to understand models of the earth system, or in the predictability of weather and climate. 

First/Joint-First author publications:

“The work of thought”–The machine learning revolution can be a revolution for our understanding of the Earth System

Explaining pan‐Atlantic cold and windy extremes using an analog‐based approach

Precursors and pathways: Dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood

Domino: A new framework for the automated identification of weather event precursors, demonstrated for European extreme rainfall

A joint perspective on North American and Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes

On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics

CMIP6 models trend toward less persistent European blocking regimes in a warming climate

Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes

Beyond skill scores: exploring sub‐seasonal forecast value through a case‐study of French month‐ahead energy prediction

Jet speed variability obscures Euro‐Atlantic regime structure

Other Publications:

ENSO diversity explains interannual variability of the pattern effect

On the Effect of Classical Versus Geopotential-jet Weather Regimes on Wintertime Rainfall Variability: Case of Morocco

Improving forecasts of precipitation extremes over northern and central Italy using machine learning

A topological perspective on weather regimes

Preprints under review:

Dynamically-informed extreme event attribution using circulation imprints

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