Model-based Policy Design and Analysis

Postgraduate course

Course description

Objectives and Content

This course embraces a key purpose of system dynamics modeling: improving the behavior of systems by modifying current decision processes (policies) or introducing new ones that are feasible and with minimal adverse unintended consequences. We will practice the process of policy design and analysis through modeling and experimenting with generic structures. The course content includes a series of (guest) lectures, modeling sessions, and labs. Reading materials include journal articles and book chapters provided by the lecturers.

Learning Outcomes

On completion of the course, the student should have the following learning outcomes defined in terms of knowledge, skills and general competence:

Knowledge

The student

  • Explains in stock/flow/feedback terms how the fundamental structures of dynamic systems produce behaviors that are problematic from the perspective of public and private policy makers;
  • Explains how institutional factors might influence policy implementation and feasibility.
  • Formulates hypotheses (in words, diagrams, and a set of model equations) as tentative structural improvements to explanatory models of problematic dynamic behavior; and,
  • Explains the process of policy parameter analysis to identify and evaluate potential leverage points for improving model behavior.

Skills

The student

  • Performs policy sensitivity analysis to ensure the robustness of a policy recommendation;
  • Establishes and applies criteria for evaluating how well a model structure contributes to the explanation of an observed dynamic behavior;
  • Assesses data requirements in light of a model's sensitivity to policy parameter estimates;
  • Explains whether and how the institutional and political ground of a system might affect its dynamic response to policy change;
  • Evaluates policy implementation obstacles and modifies expected benefits accordingly; and,
  • Produces a written discussion of a model-based policy design and analysis in a way that highlights the proposed structural changes to an explanatory model, the expected dynamics of the proposed changes, and the method of analyzing and testing the policy options.

General competence

The student

  • Conducts research and model-based policy analysis with a high degree of independence, responsibility, and reliability;
  • Participates in theoretical and practical discussions driven by critical thinking;
  • Accesses and interprets relevant scientific and policy literature;
  • Writes and speaks effectively about their work and relevant issues;
  • Asks and answers questions and engages in discussion and debate in a classroom setting; and
  • Effectively presents their model-based policy analysis in a way that facilitates communication and understanding, particularly to non-technical audiences that include policy makers and their staff.

ECTS Credits

10 ECTS

Level of Study

Master

Semester of Instruction

Spring
Required Previous Knowledge
GEO-SD302; GEO-SD303; GEO-SD304, or other adequate background in modeling
Recommended Previous Knowledge
GEO-SD304 or other adequate background in modelling
Credit Reduction due to Course Overlap
None
Access to the Course

This course is open for students in the master's programmes in System Dynamics.

Other students can apply if they have GEO-SD302, GEO-SD303, GEO-SD304, or other courses that provide an adequate background in System Dynamics.

Teaching and learning methods
The course consists of live-streamed, recorded, and stored lectures with active participation by students on introductory materials and assignments and with classroom modeling and simulation activities by lecturers and teaching assistants. Course meetings include three lectures and two labs per week over a five-week period.
Compulsory Assignments and Attendance
  • Four homework assignments.

Compulsory assignments must be approved before the student can take the exam. Approved compulsory assignments are valid in the current and the following semester.

Forms of Assessment
one week take home exam in the last (sixth) week of the course (100% of grade)
Grading Scale
An ECTS grade is provided to the student at the end of the course according to the A-F scale.
Assessment Semester
Assessment in teaching semester
Reading List
The reading list will be ready before 1 July for the autumn semester and 1 Decemeber for the spring semester.
Course Evaluation
All courses are evaluated according to UiB's system for quality assurance of education.
Programme Committee
The Programme Committee is responsible for the content, structure and quality of the study programme and courses.
Course Administrator
The Department of Geography at the Faculty of Social Sciences has the administrative responsibility for the course