My research interests revolve around political behavior and democratic theory. More specifically, they include political and civic participation, voting behavior, public opinion, election forecasting, collective wisdom, political legitimacy, and more. I also take an interest in political methodology, and have conducted studies based on survey experiments, time series data, and multi level structured data.

Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences

The American Political System

 

Academic book chapter

• Sveinung Arnesen; Signe Bock Segaard (2025). Velgernes preferanse for kommunestyre- og stortingskandidater: betydningen av kandidatenes sosiale bakgrunn. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Bjarte Folkestad; Mikael Johannesson (2017). Har kommunevalgkampen noen betydning?. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Bjarte Folkestad; Dag Arne Christensen (2012). Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner. (external link)
• Dag Wollebæk; Sveinung Arnesen (2012). Konsekvenser av organisasjonsaktivitet for yrkesdeltakelse. (external link)
• Dag Arne Christensen; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Deltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Anne Lise Fimreite; Jacob Aars (2021). Loddet er kastet: Om bruken av innbyggerpaneler i lokalpolitikken. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2015). Aktivierung und Überzeugung auf Prognosemärkte und in Umfragen. (external link)

Research report

• Ivar Eimhjellen; Sveinung Arnesen (2018). Organisasjonsengasjement blant innvandrarar. (external link)
• Audun Fladmoe; Ivar Eimhjellen; Karl Henrik Sivesind et al. (2019). Frivillighetens grunnfjell: Hvem gir mest tid og penger til frivillige organisasjoner?. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Bjarte Folkestad; Steinar Gjerde (2013). Frivillig deltakelse i Norden : Et komparativt perspektiv. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Anne Lise Fimreite; Jon Kåre Skiple (2021). Deliberativ meningsmåling i Bergen. (external link)
• Jan Erling Klausen; Sveinung Arnesen; Dag Arne Christensen et al. (2013). Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. (external link)
• Jan Erling Klausen; Sveinung Arnesen; Dag Arne Christensen et al. (2013). Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Mikael Johannesson; Jonas Linde et al. (2017). Do Polls Influence Opinions? Testing the Spiral of Silence using a Dynamic Response Feedback Algorithm. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Sara Blåka; Troy Saghaug Broderstad et al. (2024). Evaluering av lokaldemokratitiltak i foregangskommuner. (external link)
• Dag Arne Christensen; Sveinung Arnesen; Guro Ødegård et al. (2013). Valgdeltagelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2009). Penger og politikk. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Anne Lise Fimreite; Arild Ohren et al. (2022). Hvordan gjennomføre borgerpanel. (external link)
• Elisabeth Ivarsflaten; Endre Tvinnereim; Gisela Böhm et al. (2018). Norwegian Citizen Panel 2018: Study Documentation and data set. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Mikael Poul Johannesson (2022). Demokratiske algoritmer. (external link)

Academic article

• Sveinung Arnesen; Mikael Poul Johannesson; Jonas Linde et al. (2017). Do Polls Influence Opinions? Investigating Poll Feedback Loops Using the Novel Dynamic Response Feedback Experimental Procedure. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Troy Saghaug Broderstad; Mikael Poul Johannesson et al. (2024). Beyond the Ballot: The Impact of Voting Margin and Turnout on the Legitimacy of Referendum Outcomes in Europe. (external link)
• Oliver Strijbis; Sveinung Arnesen; Laurent Bernhard (2016). Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research. (external link)
• Troy Saghaug Broderstad; Sveinung Arnesen; Mikael Poul Johannesson et al. (2025). Trustees, Delegates, and Direct Democracy: Exploring Mass-Elite Incongruence in Perceptions of Advisory Referendums. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2017). Legitimacy from Decision-Making Influence and Outcome Favourability: Results from General Population Survey Experiments. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Strijbis Oliver (2013). ACCURACY AND BIAS IN EUROPEAN PREDICTION MARKETS. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2011). How prediction markets help us understand events‵ impact on the vote in US Presidential Elections. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Ole Jakob Bergfjord (2014). Prediction Markets vs Polls – an Examination of Accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 Elections.. (external link)
• Dag Arne Christensen; Sveinung Arnesen; Tor Midtbø (2019). Påvirker innvandringsscenarier nordmenns holdninger til innvandrere? Et surveyeksperiment. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Troy Saghaug Broderstad; Mikael Poul Johannesson et al. (2019). Conditional Legitimacy: How Turnout, Majority Size and Outcome Affect Perceptions of Legitimacy in EU Membership Referendums. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Johannes Bergh; Dag Arne Christensen et al. (2021). Support for electoral system reform among voters and politicians: Studying information effects through survey experiments. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Dag Arne Christensen; Henning Finseraas (2023). Look to Denmark or not? An experimental study of the Social Democrats’ strategic choices. (external link)
• Peter Esaiasson; Sveinung Arnesen; Hannah Werner (2022). How to be Gracious about Political Loss—The Importance of Good Loser Messages in Policy Controversies. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Johannes Bergh; Dag Arne Christensen et al. (2019). Påvirker det å bli informert om konsekvenser av endringer i stortingvalgordningen velgernes holdninger til den? En surveyeksperimentell tilnærming. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Yvette Peters (2017). The Legitimacy of Representation: How Descriptive, Formal, and Responsiveness Representation Affect the Acceptability of Political Decisions. (external link)
• Pedro C. Magalhães; Jon Kåre Skiple; Miguel M. Pereira et al. (2023). Beyond the Myth of Legality? Framing Effects and Public Reactions to High Court Decisions in Europe. (external link)
• Oliver Strijbis; Sveinung Arnesen (2018). Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2012). Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Bjarte Folkestad (2016). Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Troy Saghaug Broderstad; James S. Fishkin et al. (2024). Knowledge and support for AI in the public sector: a deliberative poll experiment. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Kristine Bærøe; Cornelius Cappelen et al. (2018). Could information about herd immunity help us achieve herd immunity? Evidence from a population representative survey experiment. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Dominik Duell; Mikael Poul Johannesson (2019). Do citizens make inferences from political candidate characteristics when aiming for substantive representation?. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2011). Informasjon, motivasjon, prediksjon: Eit forsøk med prediksjonsmarknad før stortingsvalet 2009. (external link)

Conference lecture

• Sveinung Arnesen; Dahlberg Stefan (2015). Opinion Polls' Effect on Political Attitudes - Results from a time-series survey experiment in a general population web panel. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2015). Opinion Polls’ Effect on Public Opinion - Presentation of A Time Series Survey Experiment Design. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Troy Saghaug Broderstad; Mikael Poul Johannesson et al. (2018). By What Authority? Uncovering the Conditional Mandate from Referendums. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Signe Bock Segaard (2024). Velgernes preferanse for kommunestyre- og stortingskandidater: betydningen av kandidatenes sosiale bakgrunn. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Mikael Poul Johannesson; Jonas Linde et al. (2017). Referendums as the wiggle room of democracy. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – A survey experimental approach to the micro foundations of political legitimacy. (external link)
• Mikael Johannesson; Erik Knudsen; Sveinung Arnesen (2023). How Partisan Selective Exposure May Not Be What You Think It Is. (external link)
• Håvard T. Rydland; Sveinung Arnesen (2025). Who Deserves a Sick Day? A Conjoint Study on Sickness Absence Legitimacy. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Troy Saghaug Broderstad; Mikael Poul Johannesson et al. (2019). The Bounded Legitimacy of Majority Rule. (external link)
• Dag Arne Christensen; Sveinung Arnesen (2012). Valgdeltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2009). Kan man forutsi valgresultater? Resultater fra de amerikanske presidentvalgene i 2004 og 2008. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Troy Saghaug Broderstad; Mikael Poul Johannesson et al. (2018). By What Authority? Uncovering the Conditional Mandate from Referendums. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – A survey experimental approach to the micro foundations of political legitimacy. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2011). How prediction markets can help us understand events´impact on the vote in presidential elections. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Dahlberg Stefan; Linde Jonas (2015). Not only measuring but also shaping the opinion? A time-series surey experiment on the effect of polls on public opinion. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – Results from a real money experiment in a general population survey.. (external link)

Media interview

• Sveinung Arnesen (2011). Valgkommentar i Vestlandsrevyen, NRK Hordaland. (external link)
• EUROPP Blog LSE; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Following Monday’s elections, Norway has taken a firm step to the right. (external link)
• CAT ARA; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Els candidats han eludit la massacre d'Utoya en campanya. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2008). Kjøpe aksjar på valresultat?. (external link)
• Redaksjonen BT; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Pølser og politikk. (external link)
• Reuters Reuters; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Norway's centre-right on course for election win. (external link)
• P2 NRK; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Valg i P2. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; EUROPP Blog LSE (2013). History suggests that Norway is in line for a change of government in September’s elections. (external link)
• Redaksjonen BT; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Dette står på spill. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2008). Kjøpe Siv-aksjer?. (external link)

Radio or TV participation

• Redaksjonen BT; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Studio BT, valgsending. (external link)
• Redaksjonen BT; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Studio BT, valgsending. (external link)
• Redaksjonen BT; Sveinung Arnesen (2013). Studio BT, valgsending. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2013). TV-intervju om regjeringssammensetningen. (external link)

Dataset

• Sveinung Arnesen; Anne Lise Fimreite; Jon Kåre Skiple (2021). Deliberativ meningsmåling om arealutviklingen på Dokken og bilfrie områder i Bergen. (external link)

Media feature article

• Sveinung Arnesen; Dag Arne Christensen; Henning Finseraas (2023). Lite å hente for Ap på et linjeskift. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Stefan Dahlberg; Elisabeth Ivarsflaten et al. (2015). Valgets egentlige helter. (external link)

Academic literature review

• Sveinung Arnesen (2008). Always with the drama. (external link)

Lecture

• Sveinung Arnesen; Dag Arne Christensen; Henning Finseraas (2022). Look to Denmark or Not? An Experimental Study of the Social Democrats' Strategic Choices.. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen (2008). Prediksjon av det amerikanske presidentvalget 2008. (external link)
• Sveinung Arnesen; Hilmar Mjelde; Eirik Løkke et al. (2022). Arendalsuka 2022: Er det liberale demokratiet i krise?. (external link)

Letter to the editor

• Sveinung Arnesen; Gunnar Grendstad; Eirik Vestrheim (2008). Ingen sviktende prediksjoner. (external link)

Journal review

• Sveinung Arnesen (2009). Amerikansk politikk - politisk system og politisk tenkning. (external link)

Doctoral thesis (PhD)

• Sveinung Arnesen (2012). Leaping into the unknown: Comparing, testing, and applying methods of predicting elections. (external link)

Non-fiction book chapter

• Sveinung Arnesen (2020). Demokratisk legitimitet – betydning av representasjon og prosess. (external link)

See a complete overview of publications in Cristin.

Published or forthcoming in refereed journals

Strijbis, Oliver, Sveinung Arnesen, and Lauren Bernhard (2016): "Using Prediction Market Data for Measuring Expected Closeness in Electoral Research.", Electoral Studies.

Arnesen, Sveinung (in press): "Legitimacy from Decision-Making Influence and Outcome Favorability", Political Studies.

Arnesen, Sveinung and Oliver Strijbis (2015):"Accuracy and Bias in European Prediction Markets", in Statistica Applicata - Italian Journal of Applied Statistics. Special issue on election forecasting techniques.

Arnesen, Sveinung and Ole J. Bergfjord (2015): "Prediction Markets vs Polls - An Examination of Accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 Elections." Journal of Prediction Markets, 8(3), p. 24-33.

Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): "Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office". International Journal of Forecasting 01/2012; 28(4):789–796. Full-text freely available here.

Arnesen, Sveinung (2011): "Informasjon, motivasjon, prediksjon: Eit forsøk med prediksjonsmarknad før stortingsvalet 2009". Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 2011 ;Volum 52.(1) s. 99-121

Arnesen, Sveinung (2011): "How prediction markets help us understand events‘ impact on the vote in US Presidential Elections". Journal of Prediction Markets. 5(3), 42-63.

 

Book chapters
Arnesen, Sveinung (2015): Aktivierung und Überzeugung auf Prognosemärkten und in Umfragen, in Oliver Strijbis and Kai-Uwe Schnapp (Eds.), Aktivierung und Überzeugung im Bundestagswahlkampf 2013, Springer DE.

Christensen, Dag Arne, and Sveinung Arnesen (2013): Deltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011, in Et robust lokaldemokrati - lokalvalget i skyggen av 22. juli 2011. Abstrakt forlag 2013, ISBN 978-92-7935-342-3. s. 47-72.

 

Most recent conference paper

Arnesen, Sveinung, Stefan Dahlberg, and Jonas Linde (2015): "Not only measuring but also shaping the opinion?" The 2015 American Political Science Association Conference, at San Fransisco, CA.

Arnesen, Sveinung, and Yvette Peters (2015): "The Legitimacy of Representation. Selection Procedures and Socio-economic Characteristics of Representatives in Decision-making Processes." Paper presented at the 5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, At Wien, Austria.

Degree dissertation

 Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): Leaping into the unknown - Comparing, testing and applying methods of predicting elections. PhD thesis, University of Bergen.

Book reviews
Josefsen, Eva og Jo Saglie (red): Sametingsvalg – Velgere, partier, medier. Oslo: Abstrakt forlag. 2011. 273 pages. Reviewed in Norwegian Journal of Political Science 2013, No. 1:75-78.

Bjørn Erik Rasch (red.): Amerikansk politikk – politisk system og politisk tenkning. Oslo:Abstrakt forlag. 2008. 326 pages. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning 2009 - 3:403-405

 

Reports
Christensen, Dag Arne, Sveinung Arnesen, Guro Ødegård, and Johannes Bergh (2013): Valgdeltagelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. Oslo: Institute for social research 2013 (ISBN 978-82-7763-405-0) 117 pages. ISF report (2013:001).

Klausen, Jan Egil, Sveinung Arnesen, Dag Arne Christensen, Bjarte Folkestad, Gro Sandkjær Hanssen, Marte Winswold, and Jacob Aars (2013): Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. Joint report NIBR/Uni Rokkan Centre. 

Arnesen, Sveinung, Bjarte Folkestad and Dag Arne Christensen (2012): "Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner", in Deltagelse i frivillige organisasjoner: Forutsetninger og effekter, Bernard Enjolras, K. Steen-Johnsen and G. Ødegård (eds.). Report, Centre for Research on Civil Society and Voluntary Research, Bergen/Oslo, Norway, p. 27-49.

Wollebæk, Dag, and Sveinung Arnesen (2012): "Konsekvenser av organisasjonsaktivitet for yrkesdeltakelse", in Deltagelse i frivillige organisasjoner: Forutsetninger og effekter, Bernard Enjolras, K. Steen-Johnsen and G. Ødegård (eds.). Report, Centre for Research on Civil Society and Voluntary Research, Bergen/Oslo, Norway, p.125-158.

Rydland, Tore, Sveinung Arnesen and Åse Gilje Østensen (2008): "Contextual data for the European Social Survey. An Overview and assessment of extant resources." Report prepared for the European Social Survey. NSD Report No. 124, Norwegian Social Science Data Services (NSD).

 

Selected dissemination texts
Arnesen, Sveinung (2013): "Following Monday ́s Election, Norway has taken a firm step to the right". Comment article on London School of Economics ́ EUROPP blog.

Arnesen, Sveinung (2013): "History suggests that Norway is in line for a change of government in September ́s elections." Comment article on London School of Economics ́ EUROPP blog.

Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): "Velgerpreferanser og valgkamp", in Replikk, No. 34, 21-36.

 

 

 

 

 

The European Internet Panel Study - EIPS

 

The Digital Social Science Core Facilities - DIGSSCORE

The Digital Social Science Core Facility (DIGSSCORE) is an infrastructure for advanced social science data collection and multi-disciplinary research at the University of Bergen. DIGSSCORE extends the successful probability-based internet-panel which was established at the University of Bergen in 2012, The Norwegian Citizen Panel, and will integrate it with a fully equipped on-site social science digital research lab, The Citizen Lab, starting August 2016. The facility takes advantage of changes in technology and research methodology that combine to bring computer laboratory research and survey studies ever closer together. This environment is designed to maximize opportunities for scientific innovation and collaboration in the social sciences and multidisciplinary research.

 

The Norwegian Citizen Panel
Norwegian Citizen Panel is a web-based survey of Norwegians’ opinions toward important societal matters. Social scientists from the University of Bergen and The Rokkan Center run the panel, which is a non-profit project exclusively used for research purposes. The participants represent a cross-section of the Norwegian population, who will be invited a few times a year to give their opinion on important questions to Norwegian society and politics.

 

The European Prediction Market Infrastructure for Political Elections - EPMIPE

The European Prediction Market Infrastructure for Political Elections develops and facilitates the use of prediction market software for use in relation to political elections and popular votes. The software has been employed to Norwegian national elections, German national elections, Spanish national and regional elections, and to Swiss national elections and popular votes. The data generated from this project have resulted in publications in peer reviewed channels such as Electoral Studies, International Journal of Forecasting, Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, Journal of Prediction Markets, Journal of Social Research.