Profile

I am a meteorologist focusing on the combination of theory, observations, and modelling, specialized on scales ranging from meso, synoptic, to large-scale flow and participated and coordinated several field campaigns.

Since 2015, I am the director of the RCN funded Norwegian Research School on Changing Climates in the Coupled Earth System (CHESS).

I am currently leading research projects focusing on atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions in higher latitudes as well as air-sea interactions and cyclone development in the midlatitude storm tracks.

In 2012, I was elected as a member of the International Commission for Dynamic Meteorology (ICDM) and was elected President of ICDM in 2019. From 2015-2019, I was the elected as Chair of the Atmospheric Working Group of the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), and a member from 2013-2021. Since 2022, I am the elected Leader of the Norwegian Geophysical Society.

I was awarded the prize for best lecturer of the academic year 2012/2013 at the Faculty for Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the University of Bergen and nominated for the IAMAS early career scientist medal in 2013.

I lead a science outreach project together with the Bergen Philharmonic Orchestra in which we featured four concerts as part of the regular concert series for the season 2019-2020. The themes of the four concerts are: Space, Ocean, Climate, and Humankind. More information about the project can be found on https://nestesteg.w.uib.no/.

Research areas

• Atmopshere-Ocean-Ice Interactions
• Jet Stream Dynamics and Variability
• Polar Lows
• Teleconnections
• Baroclinic and Diabatic Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones
• Heat Lows
• Orographic Slope and Valley Winds
• Flow over and around Topography
• Convection

I lead a science outreach project together with the Bergen Philharmonic Orchestra in which we feature four concerts as part of the regular concert series for the season 2019-2020. The themes of the four concerts are: Space, Ocean, Climate, and Humankind. More information about the project can be found on https://nestesteg.w.uib.no/.

Courses:

Introduction to Methods in Weather Forecasting (GEOF321)

Dynamics of the Atmosphere (GEOF326)

Advanced Atmospheric Dynamics (GEOF352)

Mesoscale Dynamics (GEOF328)

Seminar in Atmospheric Sciences (GEOF351)

Polar Meteorology and Climate (AGF-213)

The Arctic Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Local Climate Processes (AGF-350)

 

Supervision

I regularly supervisor Master and PhD students as well as postdoctoral research fellows. So far, I have supervised 29 Master students, 14 PhD students, and 8 Postdocs.

PhD Students

Qidi Yu: Forecast errors associated with diabatic processes in weather systems. 2022-2025

Rhituja Bhorade: Air-Sea Interactions associated with Cold Air Outbreaks. 2023-2024

Natacha Galmiche: Multimodality in ensemble forecasts. 2019-2024

Kjersti Konstali: Precipitation attribution and climate change. 2020-2024

Johannes Lutzmann: Detection and classification of frontal lifecycles. 2020-2024

Kristine Flacké Haualand: Diabatic intensification of baroclinic evolution and the role of surface fluxes. 2016-2020

Leonidas Tsopouridis: Air-sea interaction processes in the Gulf Stream and Kurishio Rregions. 2016-2020

Sunil Pariyar: Intraseasonal rainfall variability and the extreme rainfall in the western Tropical Pacific. 2015-2019

Denis Sergeev: Observations and Modeling of Polar Lows with Focus on Predictability and Genesis. 2014-2018

Clemens Spensberger: New approaches to investigate the influence of orographic and dynamic blocking on large-scale atmospheric flow. 2011-2015

Annick Terpstra: Dynamical perspectives on the formation and intensification of polar lows. 2011-2014

Mathew Reeve: Monsoon onset in Bangladesh: reconciling scientific and societal perspectives. 2010-2015

Stefan Keiderling: Jet Dynamics, Evolution, and Forcing. 2013-2017

Qi Kong: Interactions of Cyclones with steep Topography. 2011-2013

 

Master students

Jeroen Oostdam: Dynamic differences between clustered and non-clustered cyclones. 2024-2025

Markus Løkken: Influence of diabatic processes and surface fluxes on the development of reverse shear polar lows. 2024-2025

Sigrid Galtvik: Dynamical attribution of global precipitation in current and future climates. 2024-2025

Christoffer Høvås: Sensitivity of cyclone clusters to diabatic processes. 2024-2025

Hannah van der Zande: Introducing a sea ice component in an idealised coupled model. 2023

Johanne Ordahl: Detection of sea ice breakup events and the influence of atmospheric forcing. 2023-2024

Henrik Larsen: Impact of mobile sensors on road weather forecasting. 2022-2023

Susanne Olsen: Influence of diabatic processes on cyclone clusters and cyclone lifecycles. 2022-2023

Kjersti Konstali: A Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice Mixed Layer Model for Cold Air Outbreaks. 2018-2019

Lars Andreas Selberg: Dynamics and Predictability of extreme winter storm Nina. 2015-2016

Kristine Flacké Haualand: Diabatic intensification of baroclinic evolution. 2015-2016

Ståle Dahl-Eriksen: Influence of SST gradients on cyclones and storm tracks. 2015-2016

Magnus Haukeland: Polar Low Climatology and Impact on Norway: Present and Future. 2015-2016

Musa Ssemujju: Early Season Rainfall in North-East Bangladesh. 2015-2016

Matthias Gottschalk: An idealized study on the influence of the sea ice edge on the development of polar lows. 2015

Ragnhild Nordhagen: Forecast Challenges associated with Cold Pools in Norwegian Valleys. 2013-2014

Linda Green: Influence of Surface Fluxes on Polar Low Development: Idealised Simulations. 2013-2014

Bas Creeze: Polar low detection and tracking. 2013

Trond Thorsteinsson: The development and evaluation of an idealized ocean model for the Bergen Dynamic Model. 2013

Angus Munro: What can flow deformation tell us about Rossby wave breaking in the atmosphere? 2012-2013

Espen Karlsen: Extreme precipitation in Norway: Present and Future Changes based on Regional Climate Simulations. 2012-2013

Stefan Keiderling: Low Level Jet Streams at the Sea Ice Edge - Numerical Simulations using WRF. 2012-2013

Cecilie Villanger: Exteme winds in Norway - an analysis based on observations and reanalyses. 2012-2013

Elin Tronvoll: Cyclone Interaction with the Topography of Greenland: A Catalog of Cyclone Motion. 2011-2012

Academic literature review

• Xiangdong Zhang; Timo Pekka Vihma; Annette Rinke et al. (2025). Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic. (external link)
• Ian Alasdair Renfrew; RS Pickart; Kjetil Våge et al. (2019). The Iceland Greenland seas project. (external link)

Conference lecture

• Andrea Marcheggiani; Thomas Spengler; Helen Dacre (2024). Contribution of cyclones, fronts, and atmospheric rivers to the maintenance of the North Atlantic storm track. (external link)
• Andrea Marcheggiani; Helen Dacre; Clemens Spensberger et al. (2025). Diabatic processes on synoptic timescales drive variability in midlatitude storm tracks. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2022). On the Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Fronts in the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream region on Cyclone Development. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2023). Impact of diabatic effects on midlatitude storm tracks. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2023). Global climatology of cyclone clustering in present and future Climates. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2023). Sensitivity of air-sea heat exchange to lead width and orientation as well as model resolution. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Thomas Spengler; Clemens Spensberger (2019). Influence of the SST Front and Jet Stream on the evolution of Cyclones. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2019). How do Extratropical Cyclones respond to the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Front?. (external link)
• Natacha Galmiche; Helwig Hauser; Thomas Spengler et al. (2021). Revealing Multimodality in Ensemble Weather Prediction. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2017). UNifying Perspectives on Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions during CyClone Development. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra; Clio Michel (2016). Dynamics and Predictability of Arctic Extremes and the Influence of Air-Sea Interactions on their Evolution. (external link)
• Andrea Marcheggiani; Thomas Spengler (2023). Diabatic effects on the evolution of stormtracks. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Camille Li; Thomas Spengler (2022). Separating eddy driven and subtropical jets in reanalyses. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Thomas Spengler; Clemens Spensberger (2018). Influence of the Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Fronts and Jet Stream on the evolution of Cyclones. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler; Camille Li (2015). Relating objectively detected jet axes, blocks and wave-breaking events. (external link)
• Hai Hoang Bui; Thomas Spengler (2019). Influence of sea surface temperature on extra-tropical cyclones in an idealized channel framework. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2019). How Does Latent Cooling Affect Baroclinic Development in an Idealised Framework?. (external link)
• Svenya Chripko; Thomas Spengler (2024). Effects of a marine cold air outbreak on the ocean mixed layer in the Nordic Seas. (external link)
• Svenya Chripko; Thomas Spengler (2024). Effects of a marine cold air outbreak on the ocean mixed layer in the Nordic Seas. (external link)
• Qidi Yu; Clemens Spensberger; Linus Magnusson et al. (2025). Influence of Diabatic Heating on Cyclone Forecast Bias. (external link)
• Andrea Marcheggiani; Thomas Spengler (2025). On the dichotomy between lower and upper troposphere in storm track variability. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2020). How does moisture influence midlatitude cyclones?. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2022). On the Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Fronts on Cyclone Development. (external link)
• Fumiaki Ogawa; Thomas Spengler (2018). Difference between Mean and Instantaneous Wind Direction associated with Air-Sea Fluxes. (external link)
• Kjersti Konstali; Thomas Spengler; Clemens Spensberger (2023). Air-Sea interactions during Cold Air Outbreaks in a coupled Mixed Layer Model. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Heather Regan; Guillaume Boutin et al. (2023). Attribution of air-ice-sea interactions to cyclones, fronts, and cold-air outbreaks. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Lukas Papritz (2016). Maintenance of Baroclinicity in the Atlantic Storm Track and its relation to the Sea Surface Temperature Gradient along the Gulf Stream. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Lukas Papritz; Ståle Dahl-Eriksen (2016). Maintenance of Baroclinicity in the Atlantic Storm Track and its relation to the Sea Surface Temperature Gradient along the Gulf Stream. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Lukas Papritz (2015). Climatological analysis of the slope of isentropic surfaces and its tendencies over the North Atlantic. (external link)
• Denis Sergeev; Ian A. Renfrew; Thomas Spengler (2016). Structure of the shear-line polar low in the Norwegian Sea. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Christian Weijenborg (2019). Maintenance of Baroclinicity by Extratropical Cyclones. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Lukas Papritz (2016). Maintenance of Baroclinicity in the Atlantic Storm Track and its Relation to the Sea Surface Temperature Gradients and Cold Air Outbreaks. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Clemens Spensberger; Camille Li (2016). Upper Tropospheric Jet Axis Detection: Winter 2013/2014 and Northern Hemispheric Variability. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Fumiaki Ogawa (2017). Air-Sea Interaction Regimes and their Synoptic and Climatological Interpretation. (external link)
• Christian Weijenborg; Thomas Spengler; Matthew Priestley (2024). Global climatology of cyclone clustering in present and future climates. (external link)
• Marius Opsanger Jonassen; Siiri Wickström; John J. Cassano et al. (2020). Observations and simulations from an arctic fjord and valley environment in Svalbard. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Lukas Papritz (2015). Maintenance of storm tracks and baroclinicity. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2017). UNPACC project overview. (external link)
• Andrea Marcheggiani; Helen Dacre; Clemens Spensberger et al. (2025). Baroclinicity variability in storm tracks along western boundary currents. (external link)
• Kjersti Konstali; Andrea Marcheggiani; Gabriele Messori et al. (2025). Attribution of extreme wind gusts to weather features. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2024). Using weather features to disentangle jet dynamics and precipitation changes. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2024). Impact of diabatic effects on midlatitude storm tracks. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2023). Impact of diabatic effects on midlatitude storm tracks. (external link)
• Fumiaki Ogawa; Thomas Spengler (2018). Difference between Mean and Instantaneous Wind Direction associated with Air-Sea Fluxes. (external link)
• Fumiaki Ogawa; Thomas Spengler (2017). Difference between Mean and Instantaneous Wind Direction associated with Air-Sea Fluxes. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Camille Li; Thomas Spengler (2023). Separating eddy-driven and subtropical jets in reanalyses. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Kjersti Konstali; Thomas Spengler (2023). Detecting Moisture Pathways: Linking Atmospheric Rivers and Warm Moist Intrusions. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Helen F. Dacre; Clemens Spensberger (2024). Contribution of cyclones, fronts, and atmospheric rivers to the maintenance of the North Atlantic storm track. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2017). Influence of Air-Sea Interactions on Cyclone Development and Maintenance of the North Atlantic Storm Track. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Christian Weijenborg (2019). Maintenance of Baroclinicity by Extratropical Cyclones. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Lukas Papritz (2016). Maintenance of Baroclinicity in the Atlantic Storm Track and its Relation to the Sea Surface Temperature Gradients and Cold Air Outbreaks. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2017). Maintenance of Storm Tracks and Baroclinicity. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2017). Maintenance of Baroclinicity in the Atlantic Storm Tracks. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2013). Deformation: A new diagnostic for the evolution of large-scale flow. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra; Clio Michel (2015). Polar Lows. (external link)
• Svenya Chripko; Thomas Spengler (2024). Effects of a marine cold air outbreak on the ocean mixed layer in the Nordic Seas. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Lukas Papritz (2015). Maintenance of storm tracks and baroclinicity. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Lukas Papritz (2015). Maintenance of storm tracks and baroclinicity. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2017). Diabatic effects on baroclinic development. (external link)
• Svenya Chripko; Thomas Spengler (2025). Response of the Nordic Seas to a marine cold air outbreak in the GLORYS12 ocean reanalysis. (external link)
• Christian Weijenborg; Thomas Spengler (2018). Isentropic Slope Tendency as a Diagnostic for the Evolution of Severe Extratropical Cyclones. (external link)
• Fumiaki Ogawa; Thomas Spengler (2020). Influence of mid-latitude oceanic fronts on the atmospheric water cycle. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2022). On the Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Fronts in the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream region on Cyclone Development. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2023). Attribution of air-ice-sea interactions to cyclones, fronts, and cold-air outbreaks. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2023). Sensitivity of air-sea heat exchange to lead width and orientation as well as model resolution. (external link)
• Franziska Weyland; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2022). Climatology of sea ice changes attributed to cyclones, fronts, and cold-air outbreaks. (external link)
• Hai Hoang Bui; Thomas Spengler (2019). Influence of sea surface temperature on extratropical cyclones in an idealized framework. (external link)
• Martin Peter King; Stephen Outten; Camille Li et al. (2022). Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian Cooling. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2019). How do Extratropical Cyclones respond to the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Front?. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Thomas Spengler; Clemens Spensberger (2019). Influence of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Front and Jet Stream on the Evolution of Cyclones. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra; Clio Michel (2016). Polar Lows, forward and reverse shear conditions and diabatic intensification. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Christian Weijenborg (2019). Maintenance of Baroclinicity by Extratropical Cyclones. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Christian Weijenborg (2019). Maintenance of Baroclinicity by Extratropical Cyclones. (external link)
• Andrea Marcheggiani; Thomas Spengler (2023). Diabatic effects on the evolution of stormtracks. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2017). Maintenance of Baroclinicity in the Atlantic Storm Tracks. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2018). Effects of latent heating and surface fluxes in baroclinic development. (external link)

Academic article

• Kjetil Våge; Thomas Spengler; Huw C Davies et al. (2009). Multi-event analysis of the westerly Greenland tip jet based upon 45 winters in ERA-40. (external link)
• Lukas Papritz; Thomas Spengler (2015). Analysis of the slope of isentropic surfaces and its tendencies over the North Atlantic. (external link)
• S. Okajima; H. Nakamura; Thomas Spengler (2024). Midlatitude Oceanic Fronts Strengthen the Hydrological Cycle Between Cyclones and Anticyclones. (external link)
• Joachim Reuder; Markus Ablinger; Hálfdán Ágústsson et al. (2012). FLOHOF 2007: an overview of the mesoscale meteorological field campaign at Hofsjokull, Central Iceland. (external link)
• David Schultz; Thomas Spengler (2016). Comment on "Incorporating the Effects of Moisture into a Dynamical Parameter: Moist Vorticity and Moist Divergence". (external link)
• Günther Heinemann; Chantal Claud; Thomas Spengler (2019). Polar low workshop. (external link)
• Bart Geerts; Scott E. Giangrande; Greg M. McFarquhar et al. (2022). The COMBLE Campaign: A Study of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds in Arctic Cold-Air Outbreaks. (external link)
• Shun-ichi I. Watanabe; Hiroshi Niino; Thomas Spengler (2022). Formation of maritime convergence zones within cold air outbreaks due to the shape of the coastline or sea ice edge. (external link)
• Mathew Alexander Reeve; Thomas Spengler; Pao-Shin Chu (2014). Testing a flexible method to reduce false monsoon onsets. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler; Richard Moore (2015). Idealised simulations of polar low development in an Arctic moist-baroclinic environment. (external link)
• Huanhuan Ran; Lin Wang; Thomas Spengler (2025). Interannual Variability of Wintertime Marine Cold Air Outbreaks over the High-Latitude North Atlantic. (external link)
• Gordon E Jackson; Roger K Smith; Thomas Spengler (2002). The Prediction of low-level convergence lines over northeastern Australia. (external link)
• Thomas Jung; Franscisco J. Doblas-Reyes; Helge Goessling et al. (2015). Polar lower-latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Michael J Reeder; Roger K Smith (2005). The Dynamics of Heat Lows in Simple Background Flows. (external link)
• Sunil Kumar Pariyar; Noel Keenlyside; Asgeir Sorteberg et al. (2020). Factors affecting extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Joseph Egger; Stephen T Garner (2011). How does rain affect surface pressure in a one-dimensional framework?. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Thomas Spengler; Clemens Spensberger (2020). Smoother versus sharper Gulf Stream and Kuroshio sea surface temperature fronts: effects on cyclones and climatology. (external link)
• Ian A. Renfrew; Jie Huang; Stefanie Semper et al. (2022). Coupled atmosphere–ocean observations of a cold-air outbreak and its impact on the Iceland Sea. (external link)
• Lukas Papritz; Thomas Spengler (2016). A Lagrangian climatology of wintertime cold air outbreaks in the Irminger and Nordic seas and their role in shaping air-sea heat fluxes. (external link)
• Michael J Reeder; Thomas Spengler; Clemens Spensberger (2021). The Effect of Sea Surface Temperature Fronts on Atmospheric Frontogenesis. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2021). Sensitivity of Air-Sea Heat Exchange in Cold-Air Outbreaks to Model Resolution and Sea-Ice Distribution. (external link)
• Christiane Anabell Duscha; Juraj Palenik; Thomas Spengler et al. (2023). Observing atmospheric convection with dual-scanning lidars. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Michael John Reeder; Thomas Spengler et al. (2020). The connection between the Southern Annular Mode and a feature-based perspective on Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude winter variability. (external link)
• Fumiaki Ogawa; Thomas Spengler (2019). Prevailing Surface Wind Direction during Air-Sea Heat Exchange. (external link)
• Sam Potter; Thomas Spengler; Isaac M. Held (2013). Reflection of Barotropic Rossby Waves in Sheared Flow and Validity of the WKB Approximation. (external link)
• Andreas Schäfler; George Craig; Heini Wernli et al. (2018). The North Atlantic waveguide and downstream impact experiment. (external link)
• Fabio A. A. Andrade; Torge Lorenz; Marcos Gabriel Lima Moura et al. (2025). Road Weather Forecasts in Norway with the METRo Model. (external link)
• Andrea Marcheggiani; Helen Dacre; Clemens Spensberger et al. (2025). Weather features drive free‐tropospheric baroclinicity variability in the North Atlantic storm track. (external link)
• Wataru Yanase; Hiroshi Niino; S. Watanabe et al. (2016). Climatology of polar lows over the Sea of Japan using the JRA-55 reanalysis. (external link)
• Tim Woollings; Camille Li; Marie Drounard et al. (2023). The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Roger K Smith (2008). The dynamics of heat lows over flat terrain. (external link)
• Richard W Moore; Olivia Martius; Thomas Spengler (2010). The Modulation of the Subtropical and Extratropical Atmosphere in the Pacific Basin in Response to the Madden Julian Oscillation. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2021). Relative importance of tropopause structure and diabatic heating for baroclinic instability. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2019). How does latent cooling affect baroclinic development in an idealized framework?. (external link)
• Dandan Tao; Camille Li; Richard Davy et al. (2025). Arctic-Atlantic Cyclones: Variability in Thermodynamic Characteristics, Large-Scale Flow, and Local Impacts. (external link)
• Patrick Stoll; Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra et al. (2021). Polar lows - moist-baroclinic cyclones in four different vertical wind shear environments. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Camille Li; Thomas Spengler (2023). Linking Instantaneous and Climatological Perspectives on Eddy-Driven and Subtropical Jets. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2020). Characteristics of cyclones following different pathways in the Gulf Stream region. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2014). A new look at deformation as a diagnostic for large-scale flow. (external link)
• Juraj Palenik; Thomas Spengler; Helwig Hauser (2020). IsoTrotter: Visually Guided Empirical Modelling of Atmospheric Convection. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2020). Direct and Indirect Effects of Surface Fluxes on Moist Baroclinic Development in an Idealized Framework. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Trond Thorsteinsson; Thomas Spengler (2022). Bedymo: A combined quasi-geostrophic and primitive equation model in σ coordinates. (external link)
• Kjersti Konstali; Thomas Spengler; Clemens Spensberger et al. (2025). Atmospheric Fronts Drive Future Changes in Extratropical Extreme Precipitation. (external link)
• Hai Hoang Bui; Thomas Spengler (2021). On the Influence of Sea Surface Temperature distributions on the Development of Extratropical Cyclones. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2020). Cyclone Intensification in the Kuroshio Region and its relation to the Sea Surface Temperature Front and Upper‐Level Forcing. (external link)
• Denis Sergeev; Ian A. Renfrew; Thomas Spengler (2018). Modification of Polar Low Development by Orography and Sea Ice. (external link)
• Fumiaki Ogawa; Thomas Spengler (2024). Influence of mid-latitude sea surface temperature fronts on the atmospheric water cycle and storm track activity. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Guillaume Boutin; Heather Regan et al. (2026). Limited Overall Impact of Cyclones on Arctic Sea Ice Tendencies throughout All Seasons. (external link)
• Qidi Yu; Clemens Spensberger; Linus Magnusson et al. (2025). Forecast Errors Attributed to Synoptic Features. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Markus Ablinger; Jan H. Schween et al. (2009). Thermally driven Flows at an asymmetric valley exit: Observations and Model Studies at the Lech Valley exit. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Joseph Egger (2009). Comments on "Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa and Its Relation to Forcing from the Extratropics". (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Clio Michel; Thomas Spengler (2016). Forward and reverse shear environments during polar low genesis over the North East Atlantic. (external link)
• Joseph Egger; Klaus-Peter Hoinka; Thomas Spengler (2017). Inversion of potential vorticity density. (external link)
• Christian Weijenborg; Thomas Spengler (2020). Diabatic Heating as a Pathway for Cyclone Clustering Encompassing the Extreme Storm Dagmar. (external link)
• Stephen Outten; Camille Li; Martin Peter King et al. (2023). Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler; Camille Li (2017). Upper-Tropospheric Jet Axis Detection and Application to the Boreal Winter 2013/14. (external link)
• Andrea Marcheggiani; Thomas Spengler (2023). Diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. (external link)

Lecture

• Bjørg Jenny K Engdahl; Jon Egill Kristjansson; Thomas Spengler (2012). Why was the March 16-17 2008 Polar low poorly predicted?. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Richard W Moore; Thomas Spengler (2012). The Diabatic Rossby Vortex as a mechanism for polar low initiation and intensification. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Melvyn A. Shapiro; Cecilie Villanger (2012). Synoptic Evolution and Dynamic Characteristics of the Extreme Norwegian Winter Storm Dagmar. (external link)
• Johannes Lutzmann; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2023). Detecting lifecycles of atmospheric fronts: Climatology and characteristics. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra; Clio Michel (2015). Environmental Conditions for Polar Lows in the Nordic Seas. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra; Clio Michel (2014). Environmental Conditions for Polar Low Formation. (external link)
• Clio Michel; Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler et al. (2016). Climatology and Genesis Environments of Polar Lows in the Northeast Atlantic. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Richard W Moore; Thomas Spengler (2012). The Diabatic Rossby Vortex as a mechanism for polar low initiation and intensification. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler; Richard W Moore (2013). Moist baroclinic instability: A unifying perspective on polar low development. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Clio Michel; Thomas Spengler et al. (2016). Polar low dynamics: conducive environments and the role of moisture. (external link)
• Svenya Chripko; Thomas Spengler (2023). Effect of marine cold air outbreaks on water masses and circulation in the Nordic Seas. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra; Clio Michel (2015). Polar Low development in forward and reverse shear Arctic moist-baroclinic environments. (external link)
• Johannes Lutzmann; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2022). Tracking Weather Fronts. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Thomas Spengler (2017). Influence of the Gulf Stream Sea Surface Temperature Front on the Evolution of Storms. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler; Clio Michel (2014). The dynamics of reverse shear polar lows. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler; Richard Moore et al. (2015). Idealised simulations of polar low development: diabatic heating and surface fluxes. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Andrew P. Ballinger (2012). Arctic Cyclone Climatology: Present and Future. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler (2012). HIMWARC – High Impact Weather in the Arctic. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Melvyn A. Shapiro (2012). Synoptic Evolution and Dynamic Characteristics of the Extreme Norwegian Winter Storm Dagmar. (external link)
• Clio Michel; Magnus Haukeland; Thomas Spengler (2016). Climatology and Impact of Polar Lows in the North Atlantic: Present and Future. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler; Richard W Moore (2013). Moist baroclinic instability: A unifying perspective on polar low development. (external link)
• Qi Kong; Thomas Spengler; Melvyn A. Shapiro (2013). Two types of westerly tip jets near Greenland. (external link)
• Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler (2014). A WRF challenge: idealized polar low simulations. (external link)

Journal corrigendum

• Clio Michel; Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler (2019). Corrigendum: Polar mesoscale cyclone climatology for the Nordic seas based on ERA-Interim. [J. Climate, 31, (2018) (2511-2532) doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0890.1. (external link)

Conference poster

• Qi Kong; Thomas Spengler; Melvyn A. Shapiro et al. (2014). Two types of westerly Greenland tip jets. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Thomas Spengler; Fumiaki Ogawa (2017). Influence of the Gulf Stream Sea Surface Temperature Front on the evolution of Storms. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler; Camille Li (2015). Relating objectively detected jet axes, blocking and wave-breaking events. (external link)
• Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler; Camille Li (2015). Disentangling the co-variability of the jet location and intensity. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Melvyn A. Shapiro; Lukas Papritz (2013). Synoptic Evolution and Dynamic Characteristics of the Extreme Norwegian Winter Storm Dagmar. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Christian Weijenborg (2018). Maintenance of Baroclinicity: Global Climatology of the Slope of Isentropic Surfaces and their Tendencies. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2017). Latent heating and surface fluxes in baroclinic development. (external link)
• Fumiaki Ogawa; Thomas Spengler (2018). Difference between Mean and Instantaneous Wind Direction associated with Air-Sea Fluxes. (external link)
• Mathew Alexander Stiller-Reeve; David Stephenson,; Thomas Spengler (2017). New Tools for Comparing Beliefs about the Timing of Recurrent Events with Climate Time Series Datasets. (external link)
• Johannes Lutzmann; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2022). Towards an Objective Climatology of Frontal Life Cycles. (external link)
• Stefan Keiderling; Thomas Spengler (2013). Low Level Jet Streams at the Ice Edge-Numerical Studies using WRF. (external link)
• Clio Michel; Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra (2014). Climatology and dynamical aspects of polar lows over the Nordic Seas. (external link)
• Qidi Yu; Clemens Spensberger; Magnusson Linus et al. (2023). Attribution of Forecasts Errors to Weather Features in the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). (external link)
• Jonathan Winfield Rheinlænder; Anton Korosov; Einar Olason et al. (2022). Simulating extreme winter sea-ice breakup in the Beaufort Sea. (external link)
• Jonathan Winfield Rheinlænder; Richard Davy; Einar Olason et al. (2022). Breaking Up is Hard to Do – Simulating Extreme Sea-Ice Breakup in the Beaufort Sea. (external link)
• Qidi Yu; Clemens Spensberger; Linus Magnusson et al. (2024). Attribution of forecast errors to weather features in the ERA5. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2018). Effects of Surface Fluxes and Latent Heating on Extratropical Cyclones in an Idealised Linear Framework. (external link)
• Svenya Chripko; Thomas Spengler (2025). Response of the Nordic Seas to a marine cold air outbreak. (external link)
• Stefan Keiderling; Thomas Spengler (2013). Low Level Jet Streams at the Ice Edge-Numerical Studies using WRF. (external link)
• Clio Michel; Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler (2018). Polar Mesoscale Cyclone Climatology for the Nordic Seas. (external link)
• Svenya Chripko; Thomas Spengler (2023). Effect of marine cold air outbreaks on water masses and circulation in the Nordic Seas. (external link)
• Johannes Lutzmann; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2024). A Climatology of Frontal Life Cycles. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2019). Diabatic Effects on Baroclinic Development. (external link)
• Qidi Yu; Clemens Spensberger; Linus Magnusson et al. (2024). Forecast Error Attributed to Synoptic Features. (external link)
• Thomas Spengler; Christian Weijenborg (2018). Global Climatology of Baroclinicity and its Variations: Role or Air-Sea Interactions. (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2017). Impact of moisture on storm development. (external link)
• Johannes Lutzmann; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2020). Lifecycle of fronts of mid-latitude cyclones and their role in maintaining extratropical storm tracks PhD Candidate (Supervisor: Thomas Spengler). (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Thomas Spengler (2017). Air-Sea Interaction Processes along the Gulf Stream region. (external link)
• Leonidas Tsopouridis; Clemens Spensberger; Thomas Spengler (2019). How do Extratropical Cyclones respond to the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Front?. (external link)
• Clio Michel; Thomas Spengler (2016). Climatology and Genesis Environment of North Atlantic Polar Lows. (external link)
• Stefan Keiderling; Justin Wettstein; Camille Li et al. (2014). Tropical Diabatic Heating and its Influence on the Extratropical Jets during Winter. (external link)
• Qidi Yu; Clemens Spensberger; Linus Magnusson et al. (2023). Attribution of Forecasts Errors to Weather Features in the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). (external link)
• Kristine Flacké Haualand; Thomas Spengler (2018). Midlatitude Storm Development and Intensification. (external link)

Master’s thesis

• Magnus Haukeland; Thomas Spengler; Clio Michel (2016). Climatology of polar lows impacting Norway. (external link)
• Cecilie Villanger; Thomas Spengler (2013). Extreme winds in Norway - an analysis based on observations and reanalyses. (external link)
• Linda Elisabeth Green; Thomas Spengler; Annick Terpstra (2014). Influence of surface fluxes of polar low development: idealised simulations. (external link)

Doctoral thesis (PhD)

• Annick Terpstra; Thomas Spengler (2014). Dynamical perspectives on the formation and intensification of polar lows. (external link)

Popular science article

• Thomas Spengler (2015). Iskantens ekstreme klima. (external link)
• Mathew Alexander Reeve; Thomas Spengler; Torleif Markussen Lunde et al. (2012). Hva er egentlig monsunen?. (external link)

Conference abstract

• Thomas Spengler; Ian A. Renfrew; Annick Terpstra et al. (2016). High-latitude dynamics of atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions. (external link)

Media interview

• Thomas Spengler (2022). Eftan i Innlandet. (external link)

See a complete overview of publications in Cristin.

Bias Attribution Linking Moist Dynamics of Cyclones and Storm Tracks (BALMCAST)

2020-2025 (12 Mio NOK)

Summary

There is a dichotomy between theoretical understanding and modeling of weather and climate, where the former mainly assumes a dry atmosphere while the latter relies on parameterizations of physical processes, especially related to moisture and phase changes that can yield a significant feedback on the dynamics. With prevailing model biases in jet streams and storm tracks often being tied to these processes, we thus lack a theoretical underpinning that can aid a physical attribution and alleviation of these biases. For example, while the development of cyclones is traditionally thought to reduce the midlatitude temperature gradient that gives rise to storm development, latent heating within these storms enhances the temperature gradient, sometimes even yielding a net increase. These cycles are most likely associated with events of cyclone clustering with significant socio-economic impact. While the mechanisms by which cyclone lifecycles alter temperature gradients must be determined by frontal dynamics, we lack a detailed understanding of the interplay between processes along fronts and their relation to cyclone clustering as well as storm track intensity and variability. We therefore propose to develop a framework combining moist dynamics across fronts, cyclones, and the storm track.

Our framework will clarify the pertinent mechanisms and the role of frontal lifecycles and cyclone development in storm track variability and thereby aid our understanding of prevailing model biases. It will also contest our understanding of cyclone development, as our new paradigm allows for cyclones to increase temperature gradients. As our new moist storm track model will explain the positioning, intensity, and variability of storm tracks in terms of moist processes, it will allow us to physically attribute model biases and formulate alternative hypotheses about the cause for future shifts of storm tracks.

 

Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions over Key Regions of the Arctic and Their Linkages to Midlatitudes (ARCLINK)

2022-2026 (10 Mio NOK)

Summary

State-of-the-art weather and climate prediction models suffer from significant errors due to misrepresentations in both atmosphere-ocean interactions and atmospheric weather patterns. We aim to improve models by identifying processes and weather events leading to significant forecast errors. Our findings will guide model development in the polar regions with benefits for global weather and climate models. In particular, we will focus on atmosphere-ocean interactions during cold air outbreaks, which are large excursions of cold polar air masses over the relatively warmer ocean. These cold air outbreaks comprise the majority of the overall atmosphere-ocean heat exchange in the polar regions. Several recent and upcoming field campaigns provide valuable data to assess the fidelity of our models.

As the aforementioned weather events are connected to the larger-scale setting of the atmospheric circulation, we will investigate coupling mechanisms between the polar and lower latitudes. Particular focus will be on incursions of heat and moisture into the Arctic. It has recently been argued that these incursions are becoming more frequent with climate change, though a thorough assessment of the representation of these events in our weather and climate models is still lacking. We will characterize these teleconnection events to identify and attribute model errors.

Our results will explain errors in weather and climate models associated with atmosphere-ocean heat exchange and the representation of weather events. Given the importance of the atmosphere-ocean heat exchange in the subpolar regions, our findings will leave a profound impact on the weather and climate research community.