Ideological Roots of Second-Order Political Beliefs

Perceptions of what others think—second-order political beliefs—play a crucial role in shaping political behavior and policy support. Research has shown that people often underestimate public support for inclusive and pro-climate policies, which can act as a barrier to their implementation. Yet, we still lack political theoretical models to explain why such misperceptions arise and vary systematically across individuals.
This study theorizes and tests the ideological roots of second-order political beliefs. Drawing on the logic of the “funnel of causality” framework, it treats ideology as a structural determinant shaping how citizens perceive public opinion. Using survey experiments from six Western European countries, we examine how respondents perceive public opinion under zero-sum and non-zero-sum policy framings related to climate change and Muslim minority inclusion.