MANIFEST

MechANisms and actors of Feasible Energy Transitions (MANIFEST). Decarbonising the electricity system requires technologies that are already commercially available. They can be deployed fast enough and at a large enough scale to displace fossil fuels and meet climate targets. Still, there is no scientific method to evaluate whether these scenarios are feasible, given various real-world sociopolitical constraints. The EU-funded MANIFEST project is developing a new scientific understanding of the sociopolitical feasibility of climate change mitigation that takes into account the context, actors and changes over time. The project's work will provide a dynamic framework through which to assess the feasibility of national and global climate change mitigation solutions, thus accelerating their take-up.

The technologies needed to decarbonize the electricity system are already commercially available. There are mathematical models of how these technologies can be deployed sufficiently fast and at a large enough scale to displace fossil fuels to meet climate targets. Yet there is no scientific method to evaluate whether these scenarios are feasible given the real world’s socio-political constraints. MANIFEST develops a new scientific understanding of socio-political feasibility of climate change mitigation that takes into account the context, actors and change over time. Theoretically, MANIFEST combines a definition of socio-political feasibility from political philosophy with the concept of causal mechanisms of energy transitions. Thus, I shift the thinking about the feasibility of climate change mitigation from its current focus on barriers and enablers to a dynamic and context sensitive view with space for actors and agency. Empirically, I focus on transitions in electricity supply including the expansion of low-carbon electricity and coal phase-out.

I explore three areas that are critical for the feasibility of decarbonisation of electricity: 

• The role and capacities of international suppliers of electricity technologies,
• The competition between electricity technologies at the early stages of their introduction in emerging economies, and
• Factors shaping the growth of low-carbon technologies and under what conditions they substitute carbon-intensive ones.

Methodologically, I develop a new approach to assess the feasibility of climate solutions by constructing dynamic feasibility spaces which are a function of paths, contexts and actors. I test this approach by analysing national low-carbon electricity targets to determine whether states plan to accelerate decarbonisation beyond the current feasibility frontier. This dynamic feasibility space is a breakthrough in assessing the feasibility of national and global climate change mitigation solutions.