My current research is concerned with the basin-scale ocean circulation and air-sea interaction in the Arctic-Atlantic region and how this might change in the future. My work involves a unique combination of observational work and the use of numerical models. Through my research and publications, I have established myself as a central actor in the field of Arctic-Atlantic climate dynamics, and in particular on the ocean’s role in climate variability.

I am also a researcher leader at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

Podcast: Hva skjer med Golfstrømmen? Nysgjerrige Norge, 14.12.2025. https://shows.acast.com/nysgjerrige-norge/episodes/hva-skjer-med-golfstrmmen 

Why the Gulf Stream never stops. Popular science talk. Ocean Science Bar, Bergen. 29.01.2026. 

The Gulf Stream and AMOC (video in Norwegian). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_NOD9C7rFk 

Podcast from the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: AMOC. https://bjerknes.uib.no/aktuelt/new-podcast-is-the-amoc-going-to-collapse 

Popular science article: What is happening to the Arctic sea ice in winter? https://www.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-change-ice/what-is-happening-to-the-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/2351334

Popular science article: Rekordlite is og økt skipstrafikk i Arktis: Hvordan forbereder vi oss på fremtiden? High North News 26.01.2021.

Podcast from the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: Arven etter Nansen

Presenter in the concert Next Step - Ocean. Part of a collaborative concert series between the University of Bergen and the Philharmonic Orchestra. Audience number: 1300. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y19aJEIcO14&t=7s

Popular science article: Klimavarsling - en arv etter Nansen. https://www.nordisktrykk.no/FLIP/2402-UMB-flip/mobile/index.html

Popular science article: Sjøisen i Arktis kan vokse selv om verden blir varmere. https://www.aftenposten.no/viten/i/K38EvE/sjoeisen-i-arktis-kan-vokse-selv-om-verden-blir-varmere

Popular science article: Isen i Barentshavet er i ferd med å forsvinne: https://www.aftenposten.no/viten/i/B8vKE/Isen-i-Barentshavet-er-i-ferd-med-a-forsvinne

Popular science article: Tror på mer is i Barentshavet denne vinteren: https://forskning.no/meninger/kronikk/2015/01/svalbard-kommer-ut-av-isen

Popular science article: Havis på rømmen. Klima, CICERO, 2014.

Popular science article: Nansen fikk rett. ”Forskning viser at...” Dagens Næringsliv, 25.08.2012.

Guest lecturer, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS). AGF-214, Polar Ocean Climate (2026-)

Polar Oceanography (GEOF338), Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway. Teaching assistant (2014-2017).

Field course in Oceanography (GEOF332), Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway.   Teaching assistant (2014).

Winter School on Sea Ice Variability in the Arctic, Tromsø, Norway. Invited lecturer (2014).   

International polar field school, Svalbard, Norway. Invited lecturer (2009).

 

 

Academic article

• Marius Årthun; Ailin Brakstad; Jakob Dörr et al. (2025). Atlantification drives recent strengthening of the Arctic overturning circulation. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Paul R. Holland; Keith W. Nicholls et al. (2013). Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity. (external link)
• Helene R. Langehaug; Anne Britt Sandø; Marius Årthun et al. (2018). Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model. (external link)
• Ingrid Husøy Onarheim; Marius Årthun; Sigurd H. Teigen et al. (2024). Recent Thickening of the Barents Sea Ice Cover. (external link)
• Helene Asbjørnsen; Marius Årthun; Øystein Skagseth et al. (2020). Mechanisms underlying recent Arctic atlantification. (external link)
• Vimal Koul; Camilla Sguotti; Marius Årthun et al. (2021). Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. (external link)
• Sara Filippa Krusmynta Fransner; Are Olsen; Marius Årthun et al. (2023). Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik; Ellen Viste et al. (2017). Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. (external link)
• Helene Asbjørnsen; Marius Årthun (2023). Deconstructing Future AMOC Decline at 26.5°N. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Richard Bellerby; Abdirahman Omar et al. (2012). Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Barents Sea, as determined from empirical relationships and modeled hydrography. (external link)
• Ingrid Husøy Onarheim; Marius Årthun (2017). Toward an ice-free Barents Sea. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik et al. (2021). Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming arctic. (external link)
• Lars Boehme; Amy Baker; Michael Fedak et al. (2016). Bimodal winter haul-out patterns of adult Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the southern Weddell Sea. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik; Lars H. Smedsrud (2019). The Role of Atlantic Heat Transport in Future Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss. (external link)
• Helene R. Langehaug; Pablo Ortega; Francois Stephane Counillon et al. (2021). Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; David Docquier et al. (2024). Causal Links Between Sea-Ice Variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and Oceanic and Atmospheric Drivers. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Ingrid H. Onarheim; Jakob Dörr et al. (2021). The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice-Free Arctic. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Corinna Schrum (2010). Ocean surface heat flux variability in the Barents Sea. (external link)
• Helene Asbjørnsen; Marius Årthun; Øystein Skagseth et al. (2019). Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Norwegian Sea. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Erik Wilhelm Kolstad; Tor Eldevik et al. (2018). Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability. (external link)
• Jakob Dörr; Carlo Mans; Marius Årthun et al. (2026). The Arctic overturning circulation: transformations, pathways and timescales. (external link)
• Ole Rieke; Marius Årthun; Jakob Simon Dörr (2023). Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik et al. (2024). Expanding Influence of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Heat Transport on Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic. (external link)
• Céline Heuzé; Marius Årthun (2019). The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5). (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2023). Surface-Forced Variability in the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation and Overflows. (external link)
• Léon Chafik; Marius Årthun; Helene R. Langehaug et al. (2025). The Nordic Seas overturning is modulated by northward-propagating thermohaline anomalies. (external link)
• Ingrid Husøy Onarheim; Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun et al. (2015). Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Helene Asbjørnsen; Léon Chafik et al. (2023). Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation. (external link)
• Qi Shu; Qiang Wang; Marius Årthun et al. (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models. (external link)
• Erik Wilhelm Kolstad; Marius Årthun (2018). Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls. (external link)
• Knut Barthel; Ute Daewel; Dhanya Pushpadas et al. (2012). Resolving frontal structures: On the pay-off using a less diffusive but computational more expensive advection scheme. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Randi Ingvaldsen; Lars Henrik Smedsrud et al. (2011). Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea. (external link)
• David Bonan; Jakob Simon Dörr; Robert C.J. Wills et al. (2024). Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice. (external link)
• Leilane G. Passos; Helene R. Langehaug; Marius Årthun et al. (2024). On the Relation between Thermohaline Anomalies and Water Mass Transformation in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic. (external link)
• Leilane G. Passos; Helene R. Langehaug; Marius Årthun et al. (2022). Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik; Lars Henrik Smedsrud et al. (2012). Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. (external link)
• Elin Maria K. Darelius; Kjersti Opstad Strand; Svein Østerhus et al. (2014). On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. (external link)
• Øystein Skagseth; Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun et al. (2020). Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine. (external link)
• Helene Asbjørnsen; Helen L. Johnson; Marius Årthun (2021). Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Robert C.J. Wills; Helen L. Johnson et al. (2021). Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly. (external link)
• Evangelia Efstathiou; Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun et al. (2022). Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; David Bonan; Marius Årthun et al. (2023). Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik (2016). On anomalous ocean heat transport toward the Arctic and associated climate predictability. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Bjarte Bogstad; Ute Daewel et al. (2018). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.. (external link)
• Mariko Koseki; Anne Britt Sandø; Geir Ottersen et al. (2025). Exploration of short-term predictions and long-term projections of Barents Sea cod biomass using statistical methods on data from dynamical models. (external link)

Lecture

• Dorothy Jane Dankel; Christian Jørgensen; Marius Årthun (2019). Havet konsert med Bergen Filharmonisk Orkestra. (external link)
• Filippa Fransner; Noel Keenlyside; Marius Årthun (2020). Forecasting the Ocean - from temperature to fish. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2024). Deconstructing Future AMOC Decline at 26.5N. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2021). Atlantification of the Barents Sea, Presentation at 'The Changing Arctic - 100 years of diplomatic relations Estonia-Norway'. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Per Sandberg; Benedicte Nielsen et al. (2024). The future Barents Sea ecosystem: adapting and managing for 2050 and beyond.. (external link)

Conference poster

• Sara Filippa Krusmynta Fransner; Ingo Bethke; Francois Stephane Counillon et al. (2021). Predictability of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; D.B. Bonan et al. (2022). Patterns of decadal variability in observed Arctic sea-ice concentration. (external link)
• Philipp Anhaus; Lars H. Smedsrud; Marius Årthun (2018). Sensitivity of submarine melting on North East Greenland towards ocean forcing. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; David Bonan et al. (2023). Patterns and mechanisms of low- frequency Arctic sea ice variability. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Erik Wilhelm Kolstad; Tor Eldevik et al. (2018). Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Robert C Wills; Helen L. Johnson et al. (2020). Identifying the Time Scale, Pattern, and Mechanisms Underlying North Atlantic Decadal Variability. (external link)
• Erik Wilhelm Kolstad; Marius Årthun (2018). Seasonal Prediction of Temperatures in Europe from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures. (external link)
• Marit Reigstad; Sebastian Gerland; Tor Eldevik et al. (2023). The Nansen Legacy project invites you to its upcoming international symposium in November 2023. (external link)

Academic book chapter

• Tor Eldevik; Lars Henrik Smedsrud; Camille Li et al. (2020). The Arctic Mediterranean. (external link)

Conference lecture

• Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik; Lars Henrik Smedsrud (2019). The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. (external link)
• Tor Eldevik; M Steel; Lars Henrik Smedsrud et al. (2023). How Atlantic Heat Makes Arctic Sea Ice Retreat. (external link)
• Sara Filippa Krusmynta Fransner; Marius Årthun; Ingo Bethke et al. (2022). Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration. (external link)
• Lars H. Smedsrud; Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun (2019). How Atlantic heat makes Arctic sea ice retreat. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Bjarte Bogstad; Ute Daewel et al. (2019). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. (external link)
• Johanne Skrefsrud; Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun et al. (2022). On the structure and sensitivity of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification by enhanced poleward ocean heat transport. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Randi Ingvaldsen; Lars Henrik Smedsrud et al. (2010). Cold Deep Water formation on shallow banks in the Barents Sea. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Richard Bellerby; Corinna Schrum (2010). A CO2 upotake model for the Barents Sea. (external link)
• Johanne Skrefsrud; Helene Asbjørnsen; Tor Eldevik et al. (2023). Structure and sensitivity of the North Atlantic circulation system. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; David Bonan; Marius Årthun et al. (2024). Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea ice changes. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2009). Ice-Ocean climate variability in the Baretns Sea:model study. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; David Docquier et al. (2024). Quantifying the causal links between sea-ice variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and oceanic and atmospheric drivers. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Lars Henrik Smedsrud (2012). Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik et al. (2021). Atmospheric and oceanic drivers of regional Arctic winter sea-ice variability in present and future climates. (external link)
• Lars H. Smedsrud; Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun et al. (2018). A simple physical model of the Atlantic inflow in the Nansen Basin. (external link)
• Evangelia Efstathiou; Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun et al. (2020). The dominant spatial patterns of Barents Sea ice variance. (external link)
• Elin Maria K. Darelius; Marius Årthun; Henrik Søiland (2010). "Nordic heat" -processes constraining the Nordic Seas" role in climate. (external link)
• Corinna Schrum; Ute Daewel; Dhanya Pushpadas et al. (2011). Decadal variability of hydrodynamics and productivity in the Barents Sea. (external link)
• Anne Britt Sandø; Helene R. Langehaug; Marius Årthun et al. (2016). The Atlantic Water pathway in the Norwegian Earth System Model. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik et al. (2023). Arctic sea ice variability and retreat. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik (2022). Present and future influence of ocean heat transport on winter Arctic sea-ice variability. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; David Docquier et al. (2024). Causal links between Barents-Kara sea-ice variability and oceanic and atmospheric drivers. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Bjarte Bogstad; Ute Daewel et al. (2017). Multi-year prediction of the Barents Sea cod stock. (external link)
• Sara Filippa Krusmynta Fransner; Are Olsen; Marius Årthun et al. (2023). Multiyear phytoplankton predictability in the Barents Sea. (external link)
• Sebastian Gerland; Randi Brunvær Ingvaldsen; Marit Reigstad et al. (2024). Still Arctic? - The changing Barents Sea. (external link)
• Tor Eldevik; Ingrid Husøy Onarheim; Lars H. Smedsrud et al. (2020). How Atlantic heat makes Arctic sea ice retreat. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik et al. (2023). Present and Future Influence of Ocean Heat Transport on Winter Arctic Sea-Ice Variability. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; David Bonan; Marius Årthun et al. (2023). Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea ice changes. (external link)
• Øystein Skagseth; Marius Årthun; Helene Asbørnsen et al. (2019). The Barents Sea cooler in a warming ocean. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2019). The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2023). The Future Arctic Sea Ice: Key Drivers and Regional Variabilities. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Helene Asbjørnsen; Leon Martin Chafik et al. (2022). Future increase in Nordic Seas overturning as a response to enhanced horizontal circulation. (external link)
• Jakob Simon Dörr; Marius Årthun; David Bonan et al. (2023). Modes of decadal variability in observed Arctic sea-ice concentration. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Richard Bellerby; Corinna Schrum et al. (2010). A carbon system model for the Barents sea. (external link)
• Elin Maria K. Darelius; Kjersti Birkeland Daae; K. Makinson et al. (2014). Circulation in the Filchner Depression and the seasonality of the Filchner outflow, Antarctica. (external link)
• Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun; Lars Henrik Smedsrud et al. (2011). Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. (external link)
• Richard Bellerby; Are Olsen; Gisle Nondal et al. (2010). Ocean acidification response to surface ocean conditioning and transport - processes influencing anthropogenic carbon change in the Arctic and Southern oceans. (external link)

Journal corrigendum

• Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik; Lars Henrik Smedsrud (2021). Erratum: The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss (J. Climate (2019) 32 (3327–3341) DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0750.1). (external link)

Popular science article

• Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik; Ingrid Husøy Onarheim (2019). Klimavarsling - en arv etter Nansen. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2019). Sjøisen i Arktis kan vokse selv om verden blir varmere. (external link)
• Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun; Are Olsen (2019). Hvor går grensen for iskanten. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2019). Klimaendringer bremser Golfstrømmen – men i nord øker farten. (external link)

Media feature article

• Malte Müller; Arild Sundfjord; Marius Årthun (2021). Rekordlite is og økt skipstrafikk i Arktis: Hvordan forbereder vi oss på framtiden?. (external link)
• Helene Asbjørnsen; Marius Årthun (2021). Kaldere hav i et varmere klima. Hva er det som foregår?. (external link)

Radio or TV participation

• Stephen Outten; Ingjald Pilskog; Andreas Born et al. (2024). Is the AMOC Going to Collapse?. (external link)

Research report

• Anita Verpe Dyrrdal; Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke; Inger Hanssen-Bauer et al. (2025). Klima i Norge – kunnskapsgrunnlag for klimatilpasning oppdatert i 2025. (external link)

Academic literature review

• Sebastian Gerland; Randi Brunvær Ingvaldsen; Marit Reigstad et al. (2023). Still Arctic? — The changing Barents Sea. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; van Khuong Dinh; Jakob Simon Dörr et al. (2025). The future Barents Sea- A synthesis of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological changes toward 2050 and 2100. (external link)
• Lars Henrik Smedsrud; Morven Muilwijk; Tor Eldevik et al. (2022). Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice cover over the last century. (external link)

Media interview

• Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun (2012). Nansen fikk rett. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Elise Pedersen (2021). Vil varsle om klima flere år frem i tid. (external link)
• Marius Årthun (2012). Avdekker smelting i Barentshavet. (external link)

Doctoral thesis (PhD)

• Marius Årthun (2011). Water mass transformations and air-sea exchange in the Barents Sea. (external link)
• Marius Årthun; Tor Eldevik; Jakob Simon Dörr (2024). Present and future drivers of Arctic sea ice variability. (external link)
• Leilane G. Passos; Helene R. Langehaug; Marius Årthun et al. (2023). Arctic-Atlantic Climate Variability and Predictability in Observations and in a Dynamical Prediction System. (external link)

Professional article

• Øyvind Paasche; Are Olsen; Marius Årthun et al. (2019). Addressing Arctic Challenges Requires a Synoptic Ocean Survey. (external link)

See a complete overview of publications in Cristin.

1. Dörr, J. S., Mans, C. J., Årthun, M., Döös, K., Evans, D. G., and He, Y. (2026). The Arctic overturning circulation: transformations, pathways and timescales, Ocean Sci., 22, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-565-2026 
2. Årthun, M., A. Brakstad, J. Dörr, H. L. Johnson, C. Mans, S. Semper, K. Våge (2025). Atlantification drives recent strengthening of the Arctic overturning circulation. Science Advances, 11, eadu1794. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adu1794   
3. Chafik, L., M. Årthun, H. R. Langehaug, J. Nilsson, T. Rossby (2025). The Nordic Seas overturning is modulated by northward-propagating thermohaline anomalies. Communications Earth & Environment 6, 573. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02557-x
4. Årthun, M. et al. (2025). The future Barents Sea—A synthesis of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological changes toward 2050 and 2100. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 13 (1): 00046. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2024.00046
5. Passos, L., H. R. Langehaug, M. Årthun, and F. Straneo (2024). On the relation between thermohaline anomalies and water mass transformation in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic. J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0379.1
6. Bonan, D. B., Dörr, J., Wills, R. C. J., Thompson, A. F., and Årthun, M. (2024). Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice, The Cryosphere, 18, 2141–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024
7. Onarheim, I. H., Årthun, M., Teigen, S. H., Eik, K. J., & Steele, M. (2024). Recent thickening of the Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL108225. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108225
8. Dörr, J., Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., & Sandø, A. B. (2024). Expanding influence of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean heat transport on winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129, e2023JC019900. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019900
9. Dörr, J., Årthun, M., Docquier, D., Li, C., & Eldevik, T. (2024). Causal links between sea-ice variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL108195. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108195
10. Årthun, M. (2023). Surface-forced variability in the Nordic Seas overturning circulation and overflows. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL104158. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104158
11. Dörr, J. S., Bonan, D. B., Årthun, M., Svendsen, L., and Wills, R. C. J. (2023). Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes, The Cryosphere, 17, 4133–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023
12. Gerland, S., ..., Årthun, M., et al. (2023). Still Arctic?—The changing Barents Sea. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene; 11 (1): 00088. doi: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00088
13. Asbjørnsen, H., & Årthun, M. (2023). Deconstructing future AMOC decline at 26.5°N. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL103515. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103515
14. Årthun, M., Asbjørnsen, H., Chafik, L. et al. Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation. Nat Commun 14, 2065 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37846-6
15. Fransner, F., Olsen, A., Årthun, M. et al. Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. Commun Earth Environ 4, 141 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9
16. Rieke, O., Årthun, M., and Dörr, J. S.: Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea, The Cryosphere, 17, 1445–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, 2023
17. Passos, L., Langehaug, H.R., Årthun, M. et al. Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study. Clim Dyn 60, 2061–2080 (2023)
18. Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Årthun, M., Wang, S., Song, Z., Zhang, M., & Qiao, F. (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models. Science advances, 8(30), eabn9755
19. Langehaug, H. R., Ortega, P., Counillon, F., Matei, D., Maroon, E., Keenlyside, N., ... & Årthun, M. (2022). Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway. Journal of Climate, 35(7), 2111-2131
20. Efstathiou, E., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., & Lind, S. (2022). Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change. Journal of Climate, 35(10), 2961-2973.
21. Smedsrud, L. H., Muilwijk, M., Brakstad, A., Madonna, E., Lauvset, S. K., Spensberger, C., ... & Årthun, M. (2022). Nordic Seas heat loss, Atlantic inflow, and Arctic sea ice cover over the last century. Reviews of Geophysics, 60(1), e2020RG000725
22. Dörr, J., M. Årthun, T. Eldevik, E. Madonna (2021). Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Climate, 34(21), 8635-8653.
23. Koul, V., C. Sguotti, M. Årthun et al. (2021). Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. Communication Earth & Environment, 2, 140.
24. Asbjørnsen, H., H.L. Johnson, M. Årthun (2021). Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation. Journal of Climate, 34(17), 7057-7071.
25. Årthun, M., Wills, R. C., Johnson, H. L., Chafik, L., & Langehaug, H. R. (2021). Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly. Journal of Climate, 34(9), 3421-3439.
26. Årthun, M., Onarheim, I. H., Dörr, J., & Eldevik, T.. (2021). The seasonal and regional transition to an ice‐free Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GC009054. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090825
27. Skagseth, Ø., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., Asbjørnsen, H., Lien, V. S., & Smedsrud, L. H. (2020). Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine. Nature Climate Change, 1-6.
28. Asbjørnsen, H., Årthun, M., Skagseth, Ø., & Eldevik, T. (2020). Mechanisms Underlying Recent Arctic Atlantification. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(15), e2020GL088036.
29. Paasche, Øyvind, et al. "Addressing Arctic Challenges Requires a Synoptic Ocean Survey." Eos: Earth & Space Science News 100 (2019).
30. Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., & Smedsrud, L. H. (2019). The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 32(11), 3327-3341
31. Asbjørnsen, H., Årthun, M., Skagseth, Ø., & Eldevik, T. (2019). Mechanisms of ocean heat anomalies in the Norwegian Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124(4), 2908-2923
32. Langehaug, H. R., Sandø, A. B., Årthun, M., & Ilıcak, M. (2019). Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics, 1-20.
33. Heuzé, C. & Årthun, M. (2019). The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5). Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 7.
34. Årthun, M., Bogstad, B., Daewel, U., Keenlyside, N. S., Sandø, A. B., Schrum, C., & Ottersen, G. (2018). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PloS one, 13(10), e0206319.
35. Kolstad, E. W., & Årthun, M. (2018). Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls. Journal of Climate, 31(20), 8197-8210.
36. Årthun, M., E. W. Kolstad, T. Eldevik, N. S. Keenlyside, 2018. Time scales and sources of European temperature variability. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2018gl077401
37. Onarheim, I. H., and M. Årthun (2017), Toward an ice-free Barents Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8387–8395.
38. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, E. Viste, H. Drange, T. Furevik, H. L. Johnsson, N. S. Keenlyside, 2017. Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications 8.
39. Årthun, M and T. Eldevik, 2016. On anomalous ocean heat transport toward the Arctic and associated climate predictability. Journal of Climate, 29, 689-704.
40. Boehme, L., Baker, A., Fedak, M., Årthun, M., Nicholls, K., Robinson, P., ... & Photopoulou, T. (2016). Bimodal winter haul-out patterns of adult Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the Southern Weddell Sea. PloS one, 11(5), e0155817
41. Onarheim, I. H., T. Eldevik, M. Årthun, R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. H. Smedsrud, 2015. Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters 42 (13), 5364-5371.
42. Darelius, E., Strand, K. O., Østerhus, S., Gammeslrød, T., Årthun, M., & Fer, I. (2014). On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Journal of physical oceanography, 44(4), 1230-1243.
43. Årthun, M., P. R. Holland, K. W. Nicholls, D. L. Feltham 2013. Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 2372-2387.
44. Årthun, M., K. W. Nicholls, L. Boehme 2013. Wintertime water mass modification near an Antarctic Ice Front. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 359-365.
45. Barthel, K., Daewel, U., Pushpadas, D., Schrum, C., Årthun, M., H. Wehde 2012. Resolving frontal structures: on the payoff using a less diffusive but computationally more expensive advection scheme. Ocean Dynamics, 62, 1457-1470.
46. Årthun, M., K. W. Nicholls, K. Makinson, M. A. Fedak, L. Boehme 2012. Seasonal inflow of warm water onto the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L17601.
47. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, L. H. Smedsrud, Ø. Skagseth, R. B. Ingvaldsen, 2012. Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. Journal of Climate, 25, 4736-4743.
48. Årthun, M., R. G. J. Bellerby, A. Omar, C. Schrum., 2012. Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Barents Sea, as determined by empirical relationships and modelled hydrography. Journal of Marine Systems, 98-99, 40-50.
49. Årthun, M., R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. H. Smedsrud, C. Schrum., 2011. Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea. Deep Sea Research I, 58(8), 801-817.
50. Årthun, M. and C. Schrum., 2010. Ocean surface heat flux variability in the Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 83, 88-98.

Ongoing projects:

Polhavet 2050, WP-leader, 2026-2035, https://uit.no/polhavet2050 

Overturning circulation in the new Arctic (ArMOC), Project leader, 2023-2027, https://www.uib.no/en/rg/fysos/171033/armoc 

 

Previous projects:

Arven etter Nansen, WP-leader (https://arvenetternansen.com/).

Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit, WP-leader (https://bjerknes.uib.no/en/project/bjerknes-climate-prediction-unit).

Dynamics of the North Atlantic surface and overturning circulation (DYNASOR), WP-leader

Pathways, processes, and impacts of poleward ocean heat transport (PATHWAY), Project leader

Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate (http://www.blue-action.eu/)

Predictability of Arctic/North Atlantic climate (PRACTICE)

Seasonal Forcasting Engine