Climate Dynamics
Members of the Climate Dynamics Group conduct research aimed at understanding climate variability and change in the mid- to high latitudes, across timescales ranging from sub-seasonal to centennial. The group is closely connected to the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.
About the research group
Their work focuses on advancing the physical understanding of key oceanic and atmospheric processes, with particular emphasis on the dynamical and thermodynamical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere that drive natural climate variability, as well as how these dynamics may be affected by human-induced changes.
Beyond research, the group is actively involved in high-quality teaching and research training, both through university courses and the Norwegian Research School for Climate-Informed Innovation and Decision-Making.
The group was established in 2000, initially centered around the development of a global coupled climate model, the Bergen Climate Model. An effort that gradually evolved into a national collaboration, leading to the creation of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM).
Building on NorESM and leveraging state-of-the-art data assimilation techniques, the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) project was initiated in 2011. NorCPM aims to provide predictions on seasonal to decadal timescales, bridging the gap between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate projections done with NorESM.
Focus areas
· Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Interactions: Investigating how interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and cryosphere, as well as the interplay across different spatial and temporal scales, contribute to internally generated climate variability and dynamical responses to external forcings.
· Hydrological Cycle Variability: Understanding the processes that drive internal variability and long-term systematic changes in the hydrological cycle.
· Climate Predictability and Applications: Exploring the mechanisms that enable predictability on sub-seasonal to decadal timescales and developing tools and methods to deliver predictions relevant to society and ecosystems.
The group is currently focusing on building up a strong competence in applying machine learning to climate science and contributing to building up national climate services. Over the years, the group has expanded significantly and now consists of approximately 25 members, including PhD candidates, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty staff.
The group is mainly funded through UiB, EU, the Norwegian Research Council and other national funding mechanisms.
Projects
INES2 - Infrastructure for Norwegian Earth System Modelling phase 2 (2025-2028)
The Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) has been a key tool in national climate research, addressing mitigation and adaptation strategies on both regional and global scales. INES2 provides the infrastructure for Norwegian Earth System Modelling intended to maintain Norway’s leadership in climate modeling.
Contact persons: Ingo Bethke, Ping-Gin Chiu, Noel Keenlyside, Camille Li
Funding: Research Council of Norway
NorESM4CMIP7 (2025-2028)
The NorESM4CMIP7 project advances the development of the NorESM3 model, which will enhance understanding of climate and the Earth system. Spearheaded by the multidisciplinary NorESM Climate Modeling Consortium (NCC), the project aims to ensure Norway’s active and timely participation in the upcoming international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7). The NorESM3 model will conduct key CMIP7 experiments to assess emissions reduction strategies, providing critical insights for achieving the Paris Agreement goals. The project will focus on understanding accelerated global warming, the effects of emissions reductions, and the potential irreversibility of Earth system changes.
Contact persons: Ingo Bethke, Ping-Gin Chiu, Noel Keenlyside, Camille Li
Funding: NFR
Climate Futures (2020-2028)
Climate Futures is a Centre for Research-based Innovation developing climate predictions for handling climate risk. The center has four innovation areas: Smart Shipping, Sustainable Food Production, Renewable Energy and Resilient Societies
Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside, Lea Svendsen, Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
ArMOC - Overturning circulation in the new Arctic (2023-2027)
ArMOC aims to understand how present and future Arctic climate change impacts the Arctic overturning circulation, which feeds the lower limb of the AMOC.
Contact persons: Marius Årthun
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
Physiological basis of insect community responses to climate change (2022-2027)
The earth’s climate is rapidly changing and driving observable shifts in the geographic distributions and abundance of organisms. Changing climatic conditions have been invoked to explain the global declines in insect populations that have important roles in ecosystem function and crop pollination, but the causes of these declines remain largely unknown. The existing conceptual framework guiding our current understanding of the physiological responses to climate change is the thermal performance curve, which describes the thermodynamic and energetic responses to temperature. Here we propose that a new conceptual framework is needed that incorporates the effects of temperature on water loss and desiccation risk.
Contact person: Camille Li
Funding: NFR
I4C - Impetus for change (2022-2026)
The goals of I4C are to help accelerating Europe’s climate adaptation strategy and meet the European Union’s ambitions to become the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050. It also aims at turning climate commitments into tangible, urgent actions to protect communities and the planet.
Contact persons: Stefan Sobolowski, Noel Keenlyside, Asgeir Sorteberg, Sébastien Barthélémy,Temesgen G. Asfaw
Funding: Horizon Europe
Synoptic Precursors for deveLoping Improved Constraints on Extreme Rainfall (2024-2026)
Understanding the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall is vital for informed mitigation and adaptation plans. However, climate models struggle to produce realistic rainfall. This project provides unique insight into the origin of European rainfall errors in climate models and helps improve future projections of extreme rainfall.
Contact persons: Joshua Dorrington, Camille Li
Funding: Horizon Europe MSCA
Atmospheric blocking under global warming - sources of uncertainty in climate predictions and projections (2023-2026)
Cold spells, heatwaves and droughts have severe socio-economic impacts and are related to a peculiar phenomenon known as atmospheric blocking. Despite decades of research, climate models still exhibit substantial errors in blocking, leading to large uncertainties in season-to-decadal predictions and future projections of blocking trends. Leveraging a recent theoretical breakthrough, the "traffic jam blocking" theory, this project will provide the first-ever assessment of key dynamical drivers of blocking errors and trends in state-of-the-art global climate models.
Contact persons: Pragallva Barpanda, Camille Li
Funding: Horizon Europe MSCA
TOSCP - Towards Operational Supermodel Climate Prediction (2022-2026)
TOSCP is configuring the first version of the STERCP ocean supermodel for seasonal predictions.
Contact persons: Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside
Funding: ERC
DYNASOR - Dynamics of the North Atlantic surface and overturning circulation (2022-2025)
DYNASOR aims to understand the interaction of the subpolar gyre AMOC and the exchange of water masses between the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, both at the surface and in the deep overflows.
Contact persons: Marius Årthun
Funding: Bjerknes Strategic Project
BASIC - Climate response to a Bluer Arctic with increased newly-formed winter Sea ICe (2021-2025)
BASIC produced better understanding of the climate response to Arctic change, especially focusing on the new Arctic characterized by more open water in summer (hence bluer) and increased newly-formed sea ice in winter.
Contact persons: Shengping He, Camille Li, Mao-Lin Shen
Funding: NFR
PARCIM - Proxy assimilation for reconstructing climate and improving model(2022-2025)
PARCIM aims to create the first online millennium-long paleo-climate reanalysis, using modern data assimilation, model and wealth of paleo-proxy archives, and use this new reanalysis to study past climate variability and mitigate long-standing model biases.
Contact persons: Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Funding: Bjerknes Strategic Project
StormRisk - Extreme windstorms and related damage (2019-2024)
Stormrisk aimed to increase the understanding of how windstorms and damage is related using four decades of nationwide insurance data on municipality level and high resolution winds. The project quantified possible future changes in extreme winds and related changes in storm-damage.
Contact persons: Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
ROADMAP - The Role of ocean dynamics and Ocean- Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations and future Projections of impact-relevant extreme events (2020-2024)
ROADMAP's main objective was to better understand how the ocean shapes northern hemisphere climate and associated extreme events on short seasonal and long climate-change time scales.
Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Mao-Lin Shen
Funding: NFR, EU JPI Oceans+JPI Climate
Nansen Legacy (2018-2024)
The Nansen Legacy was a novel and holistic Arctic research project providing integrated scientific knowledge on the rapidly changing marine climate and ecosystem.
Contact persons: Marius Årthun
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
BCPU - Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit (2018-2023)
BCPU is developing skillful climate predictions for intermediate timescales, bridging the gap between weather forecasting and long-term climate change projections by providing real-time seasonal forecasts
Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside
Funding: Trond Mohn Foundation
KeyClim - Key Earth System Processes to understand Arctic Climate (2019-2023)
KeyClim utilized the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) to improve the understanding of Arctic climate on three levels: 1) investigate bias and deficiencies in NorESM. 2) study key Earth System processes in which are important for the northern climate evolution for the next 50-300 years. 3) isolate the role of sphere couplings and feedbacks for future projection of climate with a suite of specifically designed NorESM coupled simulations.
Contact persons: Camille Li, Asgeir Sorteberg, Noel Keenlyside
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
TRIATLAS - Tropical and South Atlantic climate-based marine ecosystem prediction for sustainable management (2019-2023)
The goal of TRIATLAS was to assess the status of the South and Tropical Atlantic marine ecosystem and develop a framework for predicting its future changes, from months to decades, by combining ecosystem observations, climate-based ecosystem prediction and information on future socio-economic and ecosystem service changes, and thus to contribute to the sustainable management of human activities in the Atlantic Ocean as a whole.
Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside, Sébastien Barthélémy
Funding: EU H2020
UREC4AOA - Improving the representation of small-scale nonlinear ocean-atmosphere interactions (2020-2023)
EUREC4AOA aimed at Improving the representation of small-scale nonlinear ocean-atmosphere interactions in Climate Models by an innovative joint observing and modelling approaches
Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki
Funding: JPI-Climate/Ocean
CoRea - Coupled reanalysis of the climate back to 1850 (2020-2023)
CoRea aimed to produce the first coupled climate reanalysis from 1850 to present with the assimilation of ocean data only for studies on the role of the ocean in the climate system and climate variability at decadal to multi-decadal timescales
Contact persons: Lea Svendsen, Mao-Lin Shen
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
COLUMBIA - Constraining the Large Uncertainties in Earth System Model Projections with a Big Data Approach (2018-2022)
COLUMBIA initiated a multidisciplinary research activity that resulted in a customizable methodology tto facilitate rigorous evaluation of large ensemble of Earth system models based on combining Machine Learning with robust statistics and multiple process-oriented assessments.
Contact persons: Camille Li
Funding: NFR
Eurasian Cooling - Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian Cooling (2020-2022)
Eurasian Cooling made a synthesis paper on Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian Cooling
Contact persons: Camille Li
Funding: Bjerknes synthesis project
PATHWAY - Pathways, processes, and impacts of poleward ocean heat transport (2017-2022)
PATHWAY aimed to understand the formation and propagation of warm and cold conditions with the Gulf Stream extension toward the Arctic, how these variations in ocean temperature interact with the atmosphere, and, hence, affect climate over land and its predictability
Contact persons: Marius Årthun
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
Dynamical links between polar and midlatitude atmospheres (2020-2021)
Dynamical links between polar and midlatitude atmospheres linked the structures associated with weather patterns at different latitudes to classical theories for atmospheric waves.
Contact persons: Camille Li
Funding: NFR
DynAMiTe - Dynamics of Arctic-Midlatitude Teleconnections (2016-2021)
DynAMiTe took a dynamics-based approach to answer one of the most pressing questions in climate science today: Is the rapidly changing climate in the Arctic altering midlatitude atmospheric circulation?
Contact persons: Camille Li, Clio Michel
Funding: NFR
STERCP - Synchronization to enhance reliability of climate predictions (2015-2021)
STERCP investigated the potential of an innovative technique (supermodelling) to reduce model systematic error, and hence to improve climate prediction skill and reduce uncertainties in future climate projections.
Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside
Funding: ERC
CHEX - Climate Hazards and Extremes (2017-2021)
CHEX was a strategic project within the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research’s (BCCR) research theme Climate Hazard. CHEX was an interdisciplinary project with 18 researchers from the University of Bergen, NORCE and the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, with backgrounds in climate modeling, hydrological modeling, meteorology, and Quaternary geology.
Contact person: Asgeir Sorteberg, Jenny S. Hagen
Funding: Bjerknes Strategic Project
Blue Action - Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate (2016-2021)
Blue-Action provided fundamental and empirically-grounded, executable science that quantified and explained the role of a changing Arctic in increasing predictive capability of weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere.
Contact persons: Marius Årthun. Nour-Eddine Omrani, Sébastien Barthélémy
Funding: EU H2020
INES - Infrastructure for Norwegian Earth System Modelling (2018-2021)
The aim of the project INES was to support the development of the Norwegian Earth System Model and help Norwegian scientists gain access to a cutting-edge earth system model.
Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside, Mao-Lin Shen, Sébastien Barthélémy
Funding: NFR
EVOGLAC - The future evolution of Norwegian glaciers and hydrological impacts (2016 - 2020)
EVOCLAC investigated the future evolution of Norwegian glaciers and hydrological impacts: an integrated modelling approach
Contact persons: Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
InterDec - inter-regional linkages to advance climate predictions (2016-2020)
InterDec aimed to deepen the understanding of mechanisms for seasonal-to-decadal-scale climate variability on a regional scale and improve its prediction capability, with focus on atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections between distant regions that could potentially affect regional weather extremes.
Contact persons: Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside
Funding: Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate
APPLICATE - Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and Linkages associated with a Changing Arctic climaTE (2016-2020)
APPLICATE developed enhanced predictive capacity in the Arctic by bringing together scientists from academia, research institutions and operational prediction centers to develop a comprehensive framework for observationally constraining and assessing weather and climate models using advanced metrics and diagnostics.
Contact persons: Helge Drange
Funding: EU-H2020
ARCPATH - Arctic Climate Predictions - Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable Societies (2016-2020)
The objective of ARCPATH was to combine improved regional climate predictions with enhanced understanding of environmental, societal, and economic interactions in order to supply new knowledge on Arctic "pathways to action".
Contact persons: Noel Keenlyside, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Sébastien Barthélémy
Funding: NordForsk NCoE
The Role of Atmospheric Waves in Arctic-midlatitude Linkages (2018-2019)
The Role of Atmospheric Waves in Arctic-midlatitude Linkages addressed fundamental open questions about how much of the observed Arctic change is a response to rather than a driver of midlatitude variability, and the dynamics underlying the linkages in both directions.
Contact persons: Camille Li
Funding: NFR
EVA - Earth system modelling of climate Variation in the Anthropocene (2014 - 2018)
EVA upgraded the Norwegian Earth system model NorESM and maintain it as a national resource for global climate studies.
Contact persons: Helge Drange, Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
jetSTREAM - Atmospheric jet variability: linking STRucture, Evolution And Mechanisms (2014-2018)
Jet streams are a key feature of the global scale wind systems that shape Earth's climate. jetSTREAM connected the theoretical, process-based view of jet variability to observations and trid to answer questions like: What are the basic recipes for jet variability? What is the most dynamically meaningful way to characterize jet variability in the real world? H
Contact persons: Camille Li
Funding: NFR
ExPrecFlood: Climatic changes in short duration extreme precipitation and rapid onset flooding - implications for design values (2015-2018)
The goals of ExPrecFlood was increased understanding of extremes in short-term precipitation, how they affect rapid but short-term intense floods (such as flood and urban floods) and how changes in climate can change the intensity and frequency of these types of phenomena.
Particular focus was on the development of methodology to include information on climate change and climate uncertainties in the calculation of return values and return periods for these types of extremes.
Contact persons: Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
HappiEVA - Changed weather related risks by reducing global warming by half a degree (2016-2018)
HappiEVA investigated the changes in weather related risks by reducing global warming by half a degree: Supporting the international project HAPPI by harvesting from competence and tools in the EVA project
Contact persons: Camille Li. Clio Michel
Funding: NFR
WaCyEx - Water Cycle Extremes across Scales (2015-2017)
WaCyEx focused on extreme precipitation events in Norway over the past 100 years, as well as investigate the weather systems that caused them and how such systems may be influenced by the sea-surface temperature in the Gulf Stream and sea ice in the Arctic.
Contact person: Asgeir Sorteberg
Bjerknes Strategic Project
PARADIGM - Prediction and Regional Downscaling Models (2015-2017)
PARADIGM aimed to improve regional predictions of climate both on land and in the ocean.
Contact persons: Marius Årthun
Funding: Bjerknes Strategic Project
NorIndia - Climate Change and its Impacts on Selected Indian Hydrological Systems (2012-2015)
NorIndia studied the effect of climate change on the Indian monsoon with the aim of quantifying the role of snow and surface processes on the Indian summer monsoon. Quantifying the role of snow and glacier melt on water resources and develop dynamical downscaled atmospheric climate change scenarios and hydrological scenarios.
Contact persons: Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
Dynawarm – Dynamics of Past Warm Climates (2011-2014)
DYNAWARM investigated how warm conditions on Earth are created and maintained by combining reconstructions of past warm climates, global model simulations of past and future warming, and studied the physical processes contributing to polar warmth
Contact persons: Camille Li
Funding: Bjerknes Strategic Project
EarthClim - Integrated Earth System Approach to Explore Natural Variability and Climate Sensitivity (2011-2014)
EarthClim Awas a nationally coordinated climate research project, gathering Universities and research institutes from Bergen, Oslo and Tromsø. Central to EARTHCLIM was to improve, implement and verify climate processes in the Norwegian community Earth System Model (ESM)
Contact persons: Helge Drange, Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: NFR
PRACTICE - Predictability of Arctic/North Atlantic climate (2011-2014)
PRACTICE aimed to establish a basis for interannual to decadal prediction of Arctic/-North Atlantic climate
Contact persons: Marius Årthun
Bjerknes Strategic Project
SnowHim - The Influence of Snow and Ice Changes on Water Resources in Himalaya (2009-2012)
SnowHim investigated how changing climatic conditions would impact the timing and amount of snow and ice melt in the Himalaya. The project aim was to quantify the contribution of snow and glacier melt to the Asian rivers.
Contact persons: Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: Norwegian Research Council
EMAPS - Ethiopian Malaria Prediction System (2007-2012)
EMAPS liked scientists from Ethiopia (Addis Ababa, Hawassa and Arbas Minch Universities) and Norway (Centre for International Health and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research) collaborated to incorporate climate variability and forecast information for malaria epidemics.
Contact person: Asgeir Sorteberg
Funding: NORAD
People
Group manager
Asgeir Sorteberg Professor
Group members
Helge Drange Professor
Tor Eldevik Professor
Noel Keenlyside Professor
Camille Li Professor
Stefan Pieter Sobolowski Førsteamanuensis
Lea Svendsen Førsteamanuensis
Sebastien Jean-Claude Barthelemy Forsker
Ingo Bethke Forsker
Shengping He Forsker
Shunya Koseki Forsker
Fei Li Forsker
Nour-Eddine Omrani Forsker
Francine Schevenhoven Forsker
Marius Årthun Forsker
Helene Asbjørnsen Postdoktor
Temesgen Gebremariam Asfaw Postdoktor
Pragallva Barpanda Postdoktor
Joshua Oldham-Dorrington Postdoktor
Robin Guillaume-Castell Postdoktor
Eurico Mesquita Noleto Filho Postdoktor
Fangxing Tian Postdoktor
Emil Bruvik Stipendiat
Hsin Yu Chu Stipendiat
Inger Kristin Nesbø Gjøsæter Stipendiat
Jenny Sjåstad Hagen Stipendiat
Carlo Mans Stipendiat
Harikrishnan Ramesh Stipendiat
Birgit Rinde Stipendiat
Julien Pooya Weihs Stipendiat
Yangfan Zhou Stipendiat