Analysis of Volcano Deformation Data with a Focus on Magma Chamber Dynamics and Cyclic Behaviour

Motivation (background): Big volcanic eruptions can cause great damage to the local environment and economy. They often also result in significant loss of life and impact Earth’s global climate system by, for example, emitting large quantities of CO2, SO2 and/or H2O into the atmosphere. Three recent examples of such eruptions are the 2011 Grimsvötn (Iceland) eruption, which caused the cancellation of thousands of flights, the 2018 Volcán de Fuego (Guatemala) eruption which killed 190 people and the 2022 Hunga Tunga (Tonga, Pacific Ocean) submarine eruption, which emitted large amount of H2O in the atmosphere and caused a deadly tsunami. Since volcanic eruptions are poorly understood it is difficult to prepare for such disasters. The goal of this master project is to get a better understanding of the mechanisms causing volcanic eruptions by using volcanic surface deformation data.

Hypothesis (scientific problem):

Surface deformation measurements, before, during and after an eruption, are fundamental for the study of volcanoes and their eruptions. For many volcanoes, such deformation data is publicly available and has been used to especially the study the volcanoes magma chamber(s). Among other things, it has been found that before and after an eruption there often is magma flow between an upper and lower magma chamber. How exactly this flow is connected to eruptions is less clear and there is still a significant amount of work that needs to done in this area. One of the issues is that modeling magma flow is complicated and often uses various simplifying assumptions. Moreover, the volcanic deformation data often also contains signals that are not directly caused by local subsurface magma flow but instead have a more regional or global character.

Test (work):
This project consists of two components (and can thus also be split into two). The first component focuses on improving models for subsurface magma flow, with a particular focus on the two magma chamber model. Often this modeling is done by assuming elastic, or simplified visco-elastic, magma chamber deformation as well as a simplified magma chamber shape and structure. In this project, volcanic surface deformation will be modeled by making both the flow modeling and magma chamber shape and structure more realistic. The second part of the project consists of a global analysis of deformation data measured near volcanoes. Various patterns in these time series have been observed but are poorly understood. Moreover, these patterns could be related to global seismicity and other phenomena. Detailed time series analysis should make it possible to better understand these data, and their possible connection to the first part (the magma flow and chamber) of the project.

Proposed course plan during the master's degree (60 ECTS)
GEOV355 (10 sp)
GEOV277 (10 sp)
GEOV274 (10 sp)
GEOV375 (10 sp)
AG335 (10 sp)
GEOV252 (10 sp)

Prerequisites
Bachelor in geophysics

Supervisors

Henk Keers (main supervisor)

Alette Kleven, UiO

Last updated: 15.12.2025